Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 010537
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1137 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Upper low continues to spin across ERN MN/WRN WI, with the sfc
low centered over the Great Lakes region. Upper low to quickly
push east into the Great Lakes region by early Thursday. This will
pull the precip area away from the state and allow light snow to
taper off from west to east across northern Iowa this evening/late
tonight. Cyclonic flow to remain across the state into Thursday
and with low clouds expected to stick around may still see some
flurries linger across the far northeast Thursday morning. Lower
level moisture to become more shallow through the day, and expect
clouds to thin and begin to lift some. Could see some sun peek
through across the south, however still expect stratus to linger
closer to the low across northern Iowa through the day. Expect
temperatures to remain nearly steady or fall slightly through the
night with little temperature advection noted and clouds/precip
lingering. May continue to see some light accumulations in
northern IA especially into the evening hours and road temps cool
some. This could create some slick spots especially across the far
north/northeast where steadier light snow is expected. With
similar conditions last night, areas across northwestern Iowa
picked up around an inch of snow in grassy areas with some
partially-covered roadways.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
Issued at 1253 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The focus of the extended forecast is a return to seasonal
temperatures and chances for precipitation this weekend and next
week.

An upper low will migrate over the Hudson Bay and gradually fill.
Ridging will build across the Plains with an upper trough digging
over the Desert Southwest Friday. A split flow pattern develops
over the weekend with a cutoff low settling into Mexico and
northwest flow over the Northern Plains. Light snow will be
possible late Saturday night and Sunday with a shortwave trough
lifting through the Midwest.

The upper pattern further amplifies next week with the cutoff low
ejecting into the Ozarks and Mid-Mississippi Valley and a deepening
western trough. Model variability increases mid to late next week
with regards to timing and track of ejecting low which will be
key to type and timing of any precipitation in Iowa. Forecast
models depict upper trough digging into the Plains late next week
bringing additional chances for precipitation followed by below
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/
Issued at 1136 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Confidence is fairly high that little change is anticipated
through much of the period. Although the vast majority of the
precipitation has ended, MVFR ceilings will persist into Thu,
possibly with periods of IFR ceilings north and east. Winds will
essentially remain unchanged.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Angle
AVIATION...Small


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