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000
FXUS63 KDMX 022333
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
533 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF IOWA OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
WEATHER. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE ON THE
STATE WITH RECORD BREAKING COLD ACROSS THE STATE. MOST FORECAST
LOWS WILL CRUSH THE EXISTING MINIMUM RECORDS FOR MARCH 3RD AND BY
10 DEGREES OR MORE IN SOME CASES. WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HOWEVER...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING DESPITE THE WEAKENING WINDS AS AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY IN THE NORTH
AND EXPAND IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AT 00Z WITH THE WHOLE THING
EXPIRING AT 15Z MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

THE VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WILL DOMINATE ON MONDAY THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FAR BELOW DAILY RECORDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IS VALID THROUGH
MID MORNING DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL MORE
THAN JUSTIFY IT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING IN THE EAST IF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH IS STILL
CLINGING TO THOSE COUNTIES...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD REBOUND SOMEWHAT
MONDAY NIGHT BEGINNING A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRISK WEST NORTHWEST 500 MB FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVERHEAD. A COUPLE OF SUBTLE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE...PROVIDING
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN
PREDICTING THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND AS A RESULT SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS SUCH AS SURFACE WINDS AND QPF ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS AND RUNS. THE ONLY THING THAT CAN BE SAID
WITH REASONABLE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY PERIOD IS
THAT COLUMN TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND THAT
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AS NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST WITHIN SUCH A SCENARIO.

FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IT APPEARS THAT A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY
PRODUCING A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA AROUND SATURDAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR AN AIRMASS WITHIN THIS
HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT WOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT WE ARE
EXPERIENCING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. PASSING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BUT NOTHING BELOW 6 KFT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-
WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON