Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 252045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE THE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE PASSING
SOUTHEAST AND STALLING OUT.  OVERRUNNING WILL BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT WITH A PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE STATE.  THE
MODELS VARY ON WHERE TO PUT DOWN THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH THE NAM
FARTHEST NORTH AND THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH.  A DECENT PUSH OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT FROM WHAT WAS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND MADE THAT ADJUSTMENT THE UPDATE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS GOING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO JUST FINE-TUNED SOME POPS/TEMPS WITH OVERALL WET
PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF AND ALSO TO TAP INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN MONSOONAL FLOW. OVERRUNNING TYPE SCENARIO DEVELOPS WITH
GREATEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN/PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HIGH WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.5 INCH TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. FINER DETAILS
REMAIN THE SIMILAR WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBILITY OF
TRAINING OF CELLS LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO CONCERNS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE STATE BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK SENDING H85 TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID TEENS CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST BEFORE
STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERRUN THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE MOST FAVORED AREA NOW APPEARS TO BE THE
SOUTH HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 12.

OUTLOOK...SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS AUG 14
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...MS AUG 14



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