Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 042159
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
359 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME FLURRIES TO PARTS
OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE EXITING IN THE EARLY
EVENING. ANY SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST. WITH CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...COLD TEMPS WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LONG TERM WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH ABOUT EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL COME ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT FORCING WITH THE WAVE BUT NOT MUCH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH BETTER THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW AND WEST THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND ENDING IN THE EVENING. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
SIMILARLY...DECENT FORCING WITH MODEST QPF. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER SO SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL BE LOWER AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE A HALF INCH
NORTHWEST.  PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE BIGGER CONCERN COMES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. COLD AIR WILL JUST DUMP INTO
THE REGION SO WHILE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 SUNDAY...THEY
WILL DROP ABOUT 10 OR SO DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND ONLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS HERE FOR TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS. A VORT MAX
DROPPING THROUGH THE FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE PRESENT WILL PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER WITH WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45
KTS SO WE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY SEE SOME CONCERNS WITH BLOWING SNOW IN
LOCATIONS THAT GOT 8+ INCHES OF SNOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HEADLINES IN THE COMING UPDATES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE
LONG TERM MODERATING TEMPS SO THE ARCTIC BLAST WILL NOT LAST BUT
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE PLEASANT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS. CURRENT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...BACKING TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW


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