440
FXUS63 KDMX 072331
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
631 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms southern Iowa this afternoon, but most places
  staying dry.

- Severe storms possible over western Iowa mid to late evening
  into early Tuesday morning. The main hazard is damaging wind
  gusts up to 70 mph.

- Additional shower and storm chances Tuesday with severe
  weather unlikely. Renewed, widespread storm chances at times
  Thursday night to Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Early afternoon upper level water vapor imagery from GOES-East
shows a cyclonic spin over the southern Manitoba province with
the shortwave trough axis into the Dakotas. Convection is ahead
of this area while over Iowa there are low level cumulus clouds,
particularly over eastern and southern Iowa, with a ribbon of
high clouds from southwest into north central Iowa. Temperatures
have warmed well into the low and middle 80s and this is
nearing the convective temperature in forecast soundings. While
there is a slight warm layer aloft, we may be able to overcome
this for a few storms this afternoon over southern Iowa with a
few storms already over eastern Iowa. With these storms favoring
more airmass variety with little available shear, main concern
would be sub-severe gusty winds as thunderstorms collapse with
this activity diminishing toward sunset.

As we head into this evening, will be watching clusters of
thunderstorms over South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska start to
head southeastward along the MUCAPE axis over western Iowa. These
storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph
possible into a few of our western counties such as Sac and Crawford
mid to late evening. The outflow looks to push out ahead of these
storms making them becoming out of balance. Thus, current
expectation is that the severity wanes quickly east of roughly
Highway 71 and south I-80. Still, subsevere gusty winds of 40 to 55
mph may still occur with this most likely for areas south of I-80
and also likely west of I-35. Rainfall amounts will generally be
around or under an inch, though a few places in western or southern
Iowa could receive between 1.5 to 2 inches per latest HREF localized
probability matched mean. With the expected progressive nature of
these storms, not anticipating any short-term hydrology concerns.
All of these storms should be largely out of our service area by or
shortly after sunrise Tuesday. However, a few showers or storms may
continue Tuesday along a surface boundary over southern or eastern
Iowa. Additionally, a few storms may try to develop in the afternoon
over north central Iowa along the 850mb boundary. Subcloud dry air
may contribute to a few gusty winds, but this should all be below
severe limits with deep layer shear being less than 25 if not 20
knots. While the previous sentences make it sound wet,
expectation is that many places will stay dry during the day
Tuesday over central Iowa.

High pressure will transit across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday providing a less active period of weather with seasonable
temperatures. However, this is short-lived as a shortwave trough off
the west central coast moves eastward flattening the Rockies ridge
as it nears the state by late Thursday. There will be some phasing
of the thermodynamic and kinematic fields and a favorable
instability and deep shear space as the shortwave lifts through the
region. This will make for periods of thunderstorms from Thursday
night through Friday night over Iowa. Strong to probably a few
severe storms will be possible in this period per the pattern and
supported by various AI and ML guidance. Efficient rainfall
processes may be in play with deep warm cloud depths and
precipitable water values of 1.5 to around 2 inches, though the
heavy rainfall concerns may be mitigated depending on storm
speeds. While ensemble means have just a 30% chance of over an
inch in 24 hours, the deterministic 0 or 6z GFS, ECMWF, and CMC
have between 1 and 3 inches in some 24 hour period between late
Thursday and late Friday. Early week soil moisture percentiles
are above the 80th level north of roughly Highway 30 and while
there will be some drying between later Tuesday through late
Thursday, this area may be more vulnerable to renewed water
issues if those rainfall amounts fall over the more vulnerable
basins.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Primarily VFR conditions prevail this evening with only a few
cumulus clouds drifting through the area. Later this evening,
thunderstorms will begin to track into the state from the
northwest. Confidence is pretty low in how this line of storms
will look as it moves into the forecast area, so have timed out
the most likely windows using PROB30 groups and will amend as
needed. There is the potential for damaging winds with these
storms, but will wait for higher confidence in thunderstorm
impacts at TAF sites before including in the forecast. A brief
period of low cloud cover moves in across the north tomorrow
morning, primarily impacting KMCW. Winds remain light and fairly
variable through most of the TAF period, although did include a
prevailing direction through the day tomorrow.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Dodson