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000
FXUS63 KDMX 151741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER IOWA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST TO SRN MN BY WED EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...ALBEIT COOL.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND AS IT DOES LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THEN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY DUE TO DECIDEDLY MORE SUNSHINE.  THE WARM
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND NOT
BECOME STRONGER UNTIL AROUND 21Z.  THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.  IF
THE WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN I CURRENTLY AM THINKING OR
STARTS EARLIER THEN HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED
UP.

AS THE HIGH DEPARTS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WHICH WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AN
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW FROM ALBERTA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER NIGHT. WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH THE LOW TRACK NORTH OF IA. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST AS
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME...BUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THERE WILL NOT BE A NEED FOR A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WITH RH GENERALLY HOLDING ABOVE 40 PERCENT
ON WED...AND FUELS ARE WET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE RECENT 2 TO 5
MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
SUPPRESS RAIN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. DECREASED
POPS AND SHIFTED RAIN SOUTH FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME. HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF AND ALLOW THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT EASTER
SUNDAY WILL BE WET BUT AT LEAST NOT WHITE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN BACK FURTHER TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SCT CUMULUS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT THOSE LEVELS.
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS BY MID MORNING WITH LOWERING CIGS. POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 3500
FT OVER NORTHERN IOWA BY 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...DONAVON