Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 170911
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
411 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Potential for a very active day including tornadoes across central
Iowa this afternoon into the early evening.  Deep convection late
last evening into the overnight has helped to stabilize the
atmosphere somewhat.  However, strong south flow into the state
continues to help instability regenerate early this morning with
another round of thunderstorms approaching western Iowa at 3 AM. Main
upper system was beginning to lift northeast over the Texas
panhandle and will approach the state this afternoon.

The convection currently approaching the state is expected to remain
largely across the northwest portion of the forecast area through
daybreak into mid morning.  Meanwhile, additional convection
currently across Kansas will race northeast into central Iowa as
moisture surges back northward into the state.  By midday, the main
synoptic front will be near the IA/MN border with the bulk of
convection/precipitation in northern Iowa and areas farther north
and west.  Much of the remainder of central Iowa will be in the warm
sector with surface based capes of 1000-1500J/KG by mid afternoon
along with very good bulk shear of 50kts+ and decent helicity values
of 100-200 m2/s2.  Shorter term models have actually been suggesting
an initial round of strong storms around midday into early afternoon
that should race north across central Iowa, however the main concern
comes by mid to late afternoon as wind shift/trof axis enters
southwest Iowa and races northeast and should provide the focus for
storm development at peak heating.  These storms will likely
initiate around 3-4 pm and with Bunkers motion suggestion movement
around 200@50kt, these storms will be racing quickly north
northeast.  The setup is quite analogous to many of the cooler
season tornado events that occur in Iowa and the likelihood of
tornadoes with these storms seems relatively good and the enhanced
outlook from SPC is in line with expectations at this point.

These storms will likely exit to the north and east by evening with
lingering pcpn in the far north overnight near the deformation zone.
Otherwise, cooler and drier air will spread across the state as
northwest winds increase in the cold advection behind the system.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Thursday...
At 12z Thu, the upper low which contributed to today`s svr wx
potential should be located near the Great Lakes Region. Large-
scale subsidence will be settling in across Iowa behind this
system, serving to keep Thursday dry. 850MB temps drop from near
+15C at 12z this morning, to near +7C at 12z Thu. With CAA in
place and soundings indicating SC field, 10F to 15F drop in temps
from Wed to Thu seems appropriate. If SC deck thick enough to
block sun during much of daytime heating hours, then 15F to 20F
degree drop may be more prudent.


Friday through this weekend...
08z Wed water vapor imagery picking up on deep (538dam heights at
500mb), well-defined upper low spinning over eastern Oregon/SE
Washington. Looking back at the past few 00z/12z model runs,
trends have certainly been slower with the progression of this low
towards the upper Midwest. 00z Wed NAM definitely faster than 00z
Wed ECMWF (slowest) and 00z Wed GFS. The 00z Wed ECMWF did speed
up slightly towards the 00z Wed GFS from the 12z Tue ECMWF. So
feel 00z Wed GFS/ECMWF blend appropriate for tracking this low.
All models depict negative tilting, with the sfc low near SW Iowa
and the 850mb low near NW IA/SE SD by 12z Sat. Ahead of the
system, especially the GFS, smatters the western half of Iowa with
lift driven by reinforcing rounds of theta-e/moisture advection.
Gulf wide open as 850mb LLJ easily taps into moisture source.
PWATs generally in the 1 inch to 1.5 inch range, and forecast
soundings show decent, though certainly not great precip
efficiency potential. In all, expect a widespread, prolonged
period of rain from Friday morning through Saturday afternoon as
cold front doesn`t pass through Iowa until 00z- 06Z Sun. SVR
potential nil as best energy only makes it as far north as the
Ozarks.

Large-scale subsidence looks to set in by Sunday. The Canadian
model is an extreme slow outlier as it keeps this system around
through Sunday. Given reliability of Canadian model, cannot
justify leaning towards its solution. Thus, have removed POPs as
best as could be for collaboration purposes on Sunday. Expect
subsequent shifts to remove POPs even further for Sunday into
Monday.


Next Week...
Long-range models struggling with handling track of next upper
low. 00z Wed ECMWF has deep low passing through North Dakota,
where the GFS is void of this feature. Ensemble trends showing
near-normal 850mb temps, so initially thinking near-normal
temperatures in the 70s/50s seem suggested at this time.


&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night/
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Periods of ongoing convection the main challenges. MCS over the
region will continue overnight with VCTS over most of the region
through 09z...then east southeast through 14z. More convection
will move across the region...confidence somewhat low on timing.
Then from ~ 19z through 03z another round of more significant
convection will move rapidly northeast with strong upper level
wave tracking into the region. Later TAF packages will highlight
threats/impacts/timing of potentially significant winds/hail. /rev


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cogil
LONG TERM...Kotenberg
AVIATION...REV



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