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000
FXUS63 KDMX 011125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
525 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE DAY REMAINS MAINLY FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT WARMER WITH AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA BEHIND RETREATING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT WARMING TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWS REMAINING WARMER OVERNIGHT AND WITH TIMING
OF APPROACHING SYSTEM A BIT SLOWER...WILL BE ABLE TO WARM THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE WEEK WITH WELL ADVERTISED
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVING BY MID WEEK AND STAYING AROUND FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. FIRST UPSTREAM WAVE APPROACHING TONIGHT WITH
BAND OF CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT NOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST WITH TIME
TONIGHT...AND KEEP THE BETTER FORCING NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
12Z. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION BETWEEN ABOUT 08-12Z
THROUGH ABOUT 150 MB COLUMN...BUT LAYER NEAR SFC IS VERY DRY AND
LIKELY TO BE FED BY EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT FEEL THAT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LIMITED FOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
AND DIGS A BIT AS THE SFC LOW REORGANIZES IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA...A
DEEPER LAYER OF SATURATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE NORTHEAST WITH CURRENT
AREAL COVERAGE OF POP STILL FAVORING THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX THERE. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE
WARMER H850 TEMPS AND THUS...SHOULD HAVE A MILDER AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR THE DAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM TIMING. GEM/GFS/EURO ALL
NOW BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FASTER BY 12Z WED MORNING WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO WARM UP FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER RESULT OF
THIS WILL BE A FASTER EXIT OF PRECIP CHANCES AND FASTER ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODIFIED FRONT
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE COLDER ARCTIC FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. AT LEAST WITH THE EURO...A SECOND TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST
IN THE H500 FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE A MORE
PERSISTENT FEATURE WITH THE COLDER AIR THIS TIME AROUND. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER UNTIL HIGH EDGES INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE DOWNSLIDE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO
THE 20S THURSDAY AND IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH AND TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. LOWS MIGHT BE COLDER BUT THE EXPECTATION OF SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN
LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE...BUT ALSO LESS LIKELY TO GO BELOW
ZERO. IF LESS CLOUDS MATERIALIZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WILL
NEED TO LOWER MINS A BIT MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH LOW
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SD/MN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD...ANTICIPATE THEM TO REMAIN NORTH OF SITES. -SN IS
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN SITE KMCW/KALO/KFOD AFTER 06Z...THOUGH HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IF
-SN AFFECTS SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH
THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB