Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 200854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MOST INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



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