Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 251801
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
101 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Surface low pressure is currently centered over northeast Oklahoma
though its sphere of influence encompasses much of the Central and
Southern Plains. This system and its associated upper low
pressure will lift northeast through Missouri today and towards
west central Illinois by tonight. A deformation band of light rain
should develop over southern Iowa early this morning as modest
theta-e advection lifts north into the state. This band of
precipitation will move north into central Iowa by mid to late
morning then gradually weaken/diminish though the afternoon as
drier mid-level air arrives. Precipitation chances will continue
tonight but with the dry air aloft it will be mainly in the form
of drizzle.

Temperatures will remain cool today with steep inversion in place
and nearly saturated profiles allowing for very little warming.
High temperatures will not stray far from temperatures this
morning. The wind will be brisk from the northeast today then
diminish overnight.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The main focus of the extended was pops mid to late week and
temperatures. The GFS and ECMWF/Canadian have large discrepancies
beginning Wednesday with the GFS the driest model next week. The
ECMWF/Canadian depict another upper level low to slowly migrate
across the region beginning Wednesday night. Thus, if the
ECMWF/Canadian solutions hold true, then a colder and wetter
pattern is in store for the state late next week. Leaned slightly
toward these two model runs as the ECMWF has been slightly more
consistent with its current solution.

Sunday into Tuesday...Lingering light rain is possible across the
east Sunday as the upper low currently impacting the forecast area
finally exits the region. A second shortwave looks to travel
across Kansas into Missouri and may skirt far enough north to
bring some light precipitation across southern Iowa early Monday.
Otherwise, surface high pressure builds into the region and
dominates the weather pattern into at least Tuesday.

Wednesday into Friday...The GFS keeps the aforementioned surface
high pressure over the region through Wednesday, lingering the
dry conditions across the state until Thursday. However, the
ECMWF/Canadian bring an upper level low pressure system out of the
southern Rockies and becomes cutoff by the end of the work week.
Thus, concerned the forecast is too warm for high temperatures
Thursday and Friday and trended downward slightly.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Widespread IFR conditions were in place across central IA at 18z
with some MVFR and LIFR as well. These conditions will change
little through the night and into Sunday morning. The current SW-
NE swath of rain is expected to gradually dissipate into the
night, but not go way entirely. The stratus will be persistent
with areas of fog later tonight as well. Overall, little
improvement is expected through the end of the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...Small



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