National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDMX 051738
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1138 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING
LOOKS DISSIPATE BY 13Z...IF NOT SOONER. THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BROAD AREA OF 500MB
VORTICITY STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST IOWA AS
A 500MB SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI TODAY. THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF IOWA...BUT NAM AND GFS PICKING UP ON SOME MID-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
RAP...AS WELL AS THE 05.03Z HOPWRF AND 05.00Z RUN OF THE NMM/ARW
WRF SHOW A SMALL RIBBON OF SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. A BIT
DEEPER MOISTURE PER RAP/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT OTM PAST 14Z
THROUGH AROUND 20Z...EVEN THOUGH THE FORCING IS VERY WEAK...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FEW TENTHS OF INCH OF SNOW TODAY. AS A
RESULT...INCREASED POPS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
EARLY THIS MORNING...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. IN THE
NORTH...LEANED TOWARD THE NAM FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

FINALLY GETTING TO SEE SOME MODERATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
BIGGER WARMING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
INVERTED TROUGH AND SECOND WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WITH NEAR NEUTRAL ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE REGION
BY 12Z THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS FOR MINS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN THURSDAY WITH WEST TO EAST MORNING THICKNESS OF
538-534 WARMING TO 549-542 BY 00Z. DESPITE DECENT WARMING ALOFT
...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY BE PRESENT A GOOD
SHARE OF THE DAY WITH A STRONG INVERSION PRESENT ABOVE 925MB. THIS
WILL PREVENT MIXING OF WARMEST AIR TO SFC...THOUGH THURS STILL LOOKS
BREEZY BY 19-20Z AS LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH TAPS WINDS ALOFT.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS
QUITE DEEP AT 20 INCHES AT KMCW AND 6 INCHES AT KALO. ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S EVEN WITH CLOUD
COVER. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MOST SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...VARIETY
OF SOLUTIONS FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS COOL FRONT DROPS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MED RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER ON THE
H500 SYSTEM TRACK AS WELL AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H500 WAVES.
THE 12Z/00Z EURO PAIR IS FARTHER SOUTH...SIMILAR TO THE SPLIT WITH
LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM WITH A ONE AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTH/CENTRAL IOWA
AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IOWA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE GEM/GFS/NAM KEEP MORE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WHICH RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIP OVER
OUR AREA. GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING BEST APPROACH TO FRIDAY POP/QPF. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD
INCREASING POP DURING DAY AS EVEN IF LIFT LACKING...LOW QPF AND
INCREASE POP EVENT APPEARS WARRANTED. WITH COOL FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL WARM SOUTH HALF
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FROM MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. SOME CONCERN REMAINS ABOUT STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
WHICH MAY HINDER DAYTIME WARMING AND MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRI MORNING NORTH TRANSITIONING TO LIQUID SOUTH BY LATE MORNING BUT
REMAINING A MIX NORTH. CURRENTLY NOT LOOKING FOR APPRECIABLE
AMOUNTS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF H500 FLOW. EURO
FIRES UP INVERTED TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT
SOUTH WITH SOME SNOW ONCE AGAIN AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD ILLINOIS. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY LOOKS COLDER
WITH TMAX IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. BY SUNDAY ADIABATIC WARMING
DRIVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND H850 TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY INTO
MONDAY. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT MIXING DEPTH IF STRATUS
DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WILL WARM HIGHS TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AS H850 TEMPS WARM TO 8 TO 9C SUNDAY AND REACH 9 TO 12C MONDAY 18Z.
DESPITE AN INVERSION...SFC FLOW OFF THE PLAINS AND LESSENING SNOW
COVER THIS WEEKEND SOUTHWEST IOWA AND STATES WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL
ALLOW WARM AIR TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD
BE COOLER AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT KOTM THROUGH BEGINNING OF PERIOD...BUT WILL
PUSH SE. CEILINGS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR THROUGH
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES. HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION ATTM WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CEILINGS
HEIGHTS ATTM. TOWARDS 12Z ANOTHER CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION ATTM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
PERIOD AND INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB