Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 231145
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
545 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...THOUGH DRY SLOT HAS BEGUN TO WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC-BOONE-WATERLOO
LINE...BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS LOW PULLS AWAY. BELIEVE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE TRENDED
FORECAST THIS WAY. FORCING BEGINS TO DECREASE NEAR 18Z...AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND MAY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT GENERALLY HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO IN MIND. IN
ADDITION...MAY HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION TOO FAR SOUTHEAST...AND MAY
NEED TO BE CUT BACK AS SYSTEM EVOLVES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOWFALL
TOTALS. CURRENTLY SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN OR MIX FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT SNOW
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND LOW...ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CURRENT REPORTS OF SNOWFALL GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20
INDICATE WET SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR WITH SNOW
PRIMARILY MELTING ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. GIVEN NATURE OF
SOUNDINGS...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EXPECT CHARACTER OF SNOW
TO REMAIN WET. WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR...HAVE KEPT TOTALS
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH EXPECT MOST ACCUMULATION TO COME
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE TWO INCHES OR MORE IN LOCATIONS
TO THE NORTH...AND ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK. HOWEVER...GIVEN TOTALS
WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY ATTM.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIFT INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF I35
NEAR MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS EVENING IN A NARROW AXIS FROM NEAR MASON CITY DOWN TOWARD
BEDFORD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL REMAINS
SOMEWHAT TENUOUS. IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS...LIKELY TO SEE
MAINLY SNOW...BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN. FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OVERNIGHT AS
SYSTEM PULLS EAST AND REORGANIZES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY TO TAPER OFF
DURING THIS TIME.

WILL SEE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PULL INTO THE
STATE ON FRIDAY BUT SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE. THE BULK OF
FORCING WILL ALSO BE NORTH OF IOWA INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN IOWA...BUT AT THIS POINT THE IMPACTS
APPEAR QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE DOWNHILL WITH READINGS COOLING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR AIRMASS SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN US. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ONLY LIMITED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT IN GENERAL COLD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH RA AND SN AFFECT
SITES THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
REDUCED TO IFR OR LIFT WITH RA/SN AT SITES THOUGH 18Z...THOUGH MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR BRIEFLY AFTER. HOWEVER...EXPECT IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 00Z...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
NOW. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT AGAIN NEAR 12Z AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB


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