Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDMX 270523
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1223 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A FEW SPOTTY ELEVATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER
WEAKER IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EARLY EVENING...BUT HAS LITTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ELEVATED AND ANYTHING SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE SUNSET. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...THINK THE ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY TO WARD
OFF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ATTM. LEFT OUT MENTION FOR NOW.  LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH IA IN
TRANSITION REGION BETWEEN SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH NO TEMP EXTREMES.
LITTLE OF CONCERN INITIALLY WITH NO LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WEAK
SURFACE FLOW FOR SAT. PRECIP WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATER SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN HOWEVER AS CURRENT NRN CANADIAN PROVINCE SHORT
WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP WITH COLD FRONT ALOFT NOTED IN THE THETA-E
CROSS SECTIONS. THUS HAVE POPS TO HIGH END LIKELIES INTO SUN
MORNING. ELEVATED CAPES SEEM TO BE BELOW 1000 J/KG BUT ESTIMATED
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION AND
LOW END SEVERE WEATHER WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE MARGINAL SPC
OUTLOOK. A PEAK HEATING SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL MAY BE A GREATER
THREAT SUN AFTERNOON SE HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A
WIDE RANGE OF MLCAPE VALUES FROM NEAR 1K /GFS/ TO 4K J/KG /NAM/ DUE
TO DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOLUTIONS. NAM SOUNDING DOES NOT
LOOK TOO REALISTIC SO A BLEND MAY BE BETTER...AROUND 2-3K. 0-6KM
SHEAR MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40KTS SO THIS WILL BE A WINDOW TO WATCH
FOR A POSSIBLE HIGHER SEVERE OUTLOOK IN COMING SPC PRODUCTS.
UNLIKE RECENT EVENTS ANYTHING THAT WOULD DEVELOP SHOULD NOT LAST
LONG WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO MON AND MON NIGHT OUTSIDE OF
WEAK DIURNAL SHOWERS IN CYCLONIC FLOW EASTERN SECTIONS MON.

TUE WILL START A PERIOD OF SEMI-ACTIVE NW FLOW HOWEVER WITH FIRST OF
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY. IA WILL
LIKELY STAY JUST N AND E OF SURFACE WAVES KEEPING OUR CONVECTION
MORE ELEVATED. POPS ARE HIGHEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH BETTER FORCING
AND INITIAL CONFIDENCE...BUT UNFORTUNATELY THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOWER END POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE BETTER PINNED DOWN. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT FIVE DAY
RAINFALL FORECASTS DO NOT DEPICT ANYTHING SUFFICIENT TO AGGRAVATE
CURRENT RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASIN FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. VISIBILITIES COULD BE LOWERED TO AROUND 4
MILES THROUGH SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 8 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CANTON`S.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...ANGLE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.