Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 251726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

OLD LOW STILL SPINNING AWAY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS STILL CIRCULATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HAVE GRAZED WATERLOO AND AREAS
NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THIS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
AWAY FROM THE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS AT
04Z SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AS EXPECTED...WITH A
SECOND WEAK COOL FRONT EXTENDING WSW ACROSS NORTHERN WI TO JUST
NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS/ST CLOUD AREA. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AND AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST WITH JUST ENOUGH COOL AIR AND
MOISTURE TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH A
REINFORCING BRUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THAT AREA.  WINDS WILL
AGAIN MIX BY AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION...STRONGER NORTHEAST...TO
ABOUT 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST TO 10 TO 20
CENTRAL AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 WEST NEARER CARROLL AND ESTHERVILLE. WITH
A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY AGAIN...EXPECTING A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE MID TO UPPER
70S FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

FAIRLY QUIET THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY ONE SYSTEM OF NOTE
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION MAINLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PRIOR TO THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW TO SET UP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE THU/FRI SYSTEM AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN US RIDGE...DEEPENING AS
IT EJECTS ESE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN DECENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT HAVE MORE OF A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AS THE GULF REMAINS SOMEWHAT CUT OFF. PWATS STILL
APPROACH 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES SO STILL EXPECT DECENT RAINFALL WITH THE
FZ LVL AROUND 12KFT AS WELL. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS
WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TIMING...HOWEVER SOME SLOWING
OF THE PROGRESSION STILL NOTED. THEREFORE BACKED OFF A BIT TIMING
WISE KEEPING THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIP INTO LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. NAM REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND FASTEST...BRINGING
THE SFC LOW ACROSS SE SD BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE ALL THE OTHER
MODELS BRING THE LOW MORE INTO EC NE/NE KS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
SLOW FURTHER SOUTH MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGESTING THE NAM TO BE AN
OUTLIER. THEREFORE EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AND WAA INTO THU NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING
TOWARD LATE FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE
DRY...BUT HAVE A SLIVER OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN EVEN MORE WHICH
WOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MUCAPE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ALONG
WITH WEAKER SHEAR...SO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. ANY ISSUES
WOULD BE MORE TOWARD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. UPPER
RIDGING TO THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A SFC HIGH IN PLACE
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT A FEW MORE MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE 80S TOWARD THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY RETURNS A
BIT AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING REGIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL IOWA LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LESSEN TONIGHT AND BECOME VARIABLE
TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SKOW


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