Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 261142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAVE DEPARTED OVERNIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER IOWA.  THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WITH SURFACE RIDGE NEARBY.  HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY WITH FORCING INCREASING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING AND THICKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I35.  AT THIS POINT...SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY ACRS THE WEST AND
WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME VIRGA AND AT MOST...SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ALTHOUGH THE BEST THREAT OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.  THERMAL ADVECTION IS
GENERALLY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY COOL TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS IOWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH DOMINATING WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CANNOT
RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST FOR VERY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH VERY QUICKLY AS HIGH
PUSHES IN AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGH WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. WEAK WAA RETURNS FRIDAY HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COOLER AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
FLOW PUSHES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF WAVE...THOUGH GFS IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF WAVE. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION MENTION
ALL SNOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD SATURATION THOUGH COLUMN
NOTED IN SOUNDINGS. WILL BE A QUICK CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
THEREFORE SNOW TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

AS HIGH PUSHES EAST RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH STRONGER WAA
RETURNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DROPPING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO LOOSE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM AND ARE NOW SUFFICIENTLY DIFFERENT TO
WEAKEN CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. GFS IS
MUCH FASTER THAN GEM/ECMWF WHICH BRING BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EVEN FASTER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS...WITH BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN...THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING IF PRECIPITATION HAS ARRIVED BY THEN.

BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINDER OF PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE PLEASANT
WITH WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN BY LATE TUESDAY AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH END OF PERIOD...GENERALLY WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WILL INITIALLY SEE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA THIS
MORNING WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS AND CEILINGS. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD VFR CEILINGS INTO THE
STATE BY LATE MORNING WITH THICKENING CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN IOWA. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
THE WEST...PRIMARILY WEST OF ALL TERMINAL FORECASTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FOR DURATION OF FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL



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