Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 172300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
300 PM PST Fri Nov 17 2017

The storm which brought rain and higher elevation snow to the
area on Thursday will continue moving east of the region today.
High pressure will bring drier conditions to the area this
weekend. Another storm will move north of our area on Monday and
might bring some light precipitation early next week.


Lingering showers continue across the south-end of the district as
clouds pile-up across Tulare and Kern Counties. Surface pressure
and frontal analysis is showing the cold front now pushing into
Southern California and continuing to move southeastward.
Therefore, will expect the precipitation to trend down with a few
clouds remaining after sunset this evening. In addition, satellite
blended imagery of precipitable-water is showing the bulk of the
moisture ahead of the cold front and now mainly over Southern
California. Model upper air analysis is showing the vort max
energy from the overnight precipitation now over the Great Basin
and moving toward Utah. With heights now rising, the trend will be
have a ridge over the West Coast by Saturday morning and a trend
of fog. Therefore, precipitation will be replaced with fog as the
main concern for the next few days.

Short range models indicating a return to clear skies above the
fog layer on Saturday and the rest of the weekend. With that, fog
will become a problem during the overnight and early morning hours
during the weekend and early next week. Currently, model otuput
statistics is showing minimum temperatures across the Mojave
Desert reaching the freezing mark on Sunday morning. Still having
difficulty seeing that much of a significant drop temperatures as
models still showing warm air advecting into the region over the
next 24 to 36 hours. Yet, if the air becomes very dry during this
time frame, will have to consider freeze products for the desert
this weekend. Furthermore, models do show another disturbance
crossing the region on Monday, the bulk of its energy may remain
over Northern California and skirt the northern half of the
district. Even-more, GFS-modtrend and the latest ECMWF show the
bulk of the energy from the next wave to affect the Pacific
Northwest and extreme Northern California. Yet, will keep the
chances of possible precipitation for Monday before the ridge
rebounds over the West Coast. While models uncertainty grows
during the later periods, the strength of the ridge may help it
dominate the region through the remainder of the seven days.


Mountain obscuring IFR conditions due to low clouds and
precipitation over the southern Sierra Nevada becoming mainly
MVFR after sunset today. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the Central CA Interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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