Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 171022
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
322 AM PDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather can be expected across central California through
the middle of next week. Heat risk will be very high in the San
Joaquin Valley, as daytime temperatures easily exceed 100 degrees.
Rivers and creeks will be running high and swift, as snowmelt
continues from the Sierra-Nevada Mountains this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to strengthen over the region through
the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will rise above
100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills and desert
areas today, then warm several more degrees Sunday and Monday.
Monday and Tuesday temperatures will see highs in the 108 to 113
degree range in these areas, while the mountains see temperatures
climb into the 90s as high as the 8000 foot level. These
temperatures will likely be record breaking, especially on Sunday
and Monday where records for Fresno and Bakersfield are 106 to 107
degrees.

Models are also indicating that Wednesday will continue to be
just as hot as Tuesday in most places. Thus, will extend the
Excessive Heat Warning through Wednesday evening.

Prolonged exposure to these temperatures, especially after a
period of unseasonably cool weather like we had last week, will
increase the risk of heat related illnesses. Children, the
elderly, and people with chronic ailments are the most susceptible
to heat related illness. Heat exhaustion, cramps, or in extreme
cases, heat stroke can result from prolonged exposure to these
conditions. Area waterways are running very cold and fast,
increasing the risk for hypothermia, and water rescues. Pets,
crops, and livestock may also require extra care through the hot
weather.

Expect cumulus buildups over the higher elevations of the Sierra
Nevada today, which could lead to a few light showers. Sunday and
Monday it appears that there will be enough instability for a
slight chance of thunderstorms near the crest as well. Otherwise,
the forecast is dry for the next week.

Light wind can be expected with some diurnal mixing during the
afternoon and early evening hours. This results in a northwest
surface wind across parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise, a
stagnant air mass will lead to worsening air quality in the San
Joaquin Valley over the next few days.

Models bring a low pressure system will moving across Washington
state and into the northern Rockies Thursday and Friday with a
weak trough dropping down into California, weakening the ridge
slightly and allowing temperatures to edge down a few degrees.
Guidance has temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees
across the San Joaquin Valley on Friday and a few degrees cooler
next Saturday. Concern is that the models are trending a bit too
much toward climatology in the period. With such a strong ridge of
high pressure in place it may be difficult for this system to
weaken it very much. If that is the case, the forecasted
temperatures for the end of next week will be a few degrees too
cool. Do not expect them to be as warm as the beginning of the
week, but could still see triple digits.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions can be expected throughout the Central California
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Saturday June 17 2017... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno and Kern Counties and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon Sunday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday
CAZ089>095-098-099.

&&

$$

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