Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 231154
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
454 AM PDT Thu Mar 23 2017
An active pattern is expected for the next week with periods of
wet weather and breezy to gusty winds. Temperatures will fluctuate
a little but generally within a few degrees above or below normal
for this time of year.
Upper trough has shifted east over the lower Colorado River Valley
now with just some light upslope showers across the mountains in
Tulare and Kern Counties. Snow levels are down around 5000 feet,
so a few snow flurries will be possible along the passes, but
showers are diminishing and will continue to through sunrise. A
healthy onshore flow is providing some breezy conditions in the
San Joaquin Valley and gustier winds in the Kern County Mountain
passes into the Desert. The passes will continue to see gusts of
30-40 mph through the day while winds in the SJ Valley will see
mainly light winds this afternoon. Short wave ridging will build
in through the day for dry conditions though low clouds could
persist along the foothills and eastern side of the SJ Valley.
Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal today with
mainly mid 60s in the SJ Valley.
The dry period will be brief as the ridge gives way on Friday to
the next upper trough approaching from the northeast Pacific.
Precipitation may begin Friday morning around Yosemite NP, but
most of the activity will occur Friday afternoon and night as the
cold front moves in. The trough axis shifts through Saturday
morning with scattered mainly light showers continuing through the
afternoon. QPF give up to one third of an inch rain from Fresno
County north, tapering down to around a tenth of an inch in Kern
County. The Sierra from Yosemite to Kings Canyon could see over
an inch liquid precip in some areas, while the Tulare and Kern
County mountain areas may on get a quarter to one half an inch.
Snow levels will start out above 8000 feet Friday, then lower to
around 7000 Friday night through Saturday. Snow totals of 3 to 6
inches are possible down to 7000 feet, with 6 to 12 inches above
Weak short wave ridging passes through Sat night into Sun morning
for another brief dry period. Another NE Pacific trough moves in
Sunday aftn through Monday for another round of wet weather. This
system looks a little colder with snow levels down around 6000 ft.
The models do continue to struggle a bit with this one as the GFS
wants to form a closed low over Las Vegas Monday night. This would
maintain some showery conditions into Tuesday along with a strong
NNE upper jet over the Sierra. The EC is more progressive with an
open wave trough shifting over the four corners region on Tuesday.
The GEM does form a closed low like the GFS, but farther east over
Arizona. For now have mostly dry conditions forecast for Tuesday,
with just a few slight POPs over the Sierra.
More short wave ridging for midweek then yet another trough may
affect the district by next Thursday. Fairly good agreement in
this one shifting inland farther north then diving SSE over CA.
Bottom line is an active pattern looks to continue for the next
Given the active pattern, temperatures will generally be within a
few degrees plus or minus of late March normals. Winds will remain
gusty in the Kern County Mountain passes and Desert for much of
the period. Strongest gusts may occur on Monday as a tight onshore
pressure gradient is progged to develop.
Areas MVFR and local IFR with mountain obscurations with isolated
showers in the mountains of Kern County through 18Z Thursday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected across the central
California interior for the next 24 hrs.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.