Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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226
FXUS66 KHNX 152149
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
249 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures through Wednesday with a
significant cooling trend Thursday into the weekend. Showers will
be possible across much of the area Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level high pressure over the desert southwest
began to build northwest into southern and central California
resulting in a warming trend. Temperatures this afternoon were
generally between 6 and 9 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago
and are forecast to warm to around 5 degrees above normal for the
middle of October. Continued warming is expected on Monday...which
also looks to be the warmest day of the week...with daytime high
temepratures climbing to nearly 10 degrees above normal. Above
normal temperatures will prevail across the area into Wednesday.

Breezy offshore winds were present this afternoon across the Kern
County mountains as well as near the Grapevine...where wind gusts
between 20 and 25 mph were observed. The strongest winds were
right near the Grapevine today...where gusts to 44 mph were
observed this morning and this afternoon. The HRRR has been
consistently advertising that winds will subside in the next few
hours.

Otherwise...the focus of the forecast shifts from warm and dry to
cool and possibly wet Thursday into Friday as an upper trough
begins to impact the Pacific Northwest and northern California
coastline on Thursday. The best chance for precipitation across
the area will be from Fresno county northward Thursday evening
into Friday. Snow levels with the bulk of precipitation will generally
hover between 9000 and 10000 feet.

Yesterday afternoon the forecast models indicated that the entire
region would see precipitation...where today those same models
are keeping the bulk of the precipitation from Fresno county
northward. We will continue to closely watch model trends over the
next 24 and 48 hours and hopefully nail down timing as well as
amounts of precipitation expected. Either way...we are confident
that the entire region will see a significant cooldown...as much
as 20 degrees between Monday and Friday.

Another thing to note...NCEPs Global Ensemble has decreased
predictability in the upper level pattern for Thursday and Friday
compared to 24 hours ago...adding to our uncertainty in the
extended forecast. Please continue to monitor the forecast for the
latest information.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR visibilities due to smoke can be expected in the San
Joaquin Valley, foothills and higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada
for at least the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions prevailing
elsewhere across the Central California Interior.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening CAZ295.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ095.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon CAZ091-092.

&&

$$

public...Riley
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...Riley

weather.gov/hanford



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