Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 141043
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
243 AM PST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal system will brush the northern
parts of the forecast area this morning before a more
significant Pacific weather system moves into the region
later this week. High pressure returns late in the week for
a dry weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hanford radar shows some light precipitation
moving east across Merced and Mariposa counties as a weak frontal
boundary skirts the northern part of the forecast area. Thus far,
mesonets have not reported measurable rain and are showing snow
level around 8000 feet. This is a very fast moving and weak system
and any measureable precipitation will be light and end by mid
morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows the shortwave trough
responsible for this mornings showers racing east across far
Northern California as the flow continues from the west to
southwest. The next weather system which has the potential for
some significant rain and higher elevation snow is moving east
along 140w.

Forecast models bring the first precipitation from this second
storm into Northern California Wednesday morning and then spread
some light qpf into the Yosemite area Wednesday afternoon. Not
much in the way of a southward movement of the precipitation area
Wednesday night as the incoming frontal band is stretched nearly
parallel to the jet stream however the flow direction is ideal
for orographic enhancement in the Sierra north of Kings Canyon
during this time period. On Thursday, models continue to slowly
move the precipitation band to the south, reaching Kern County by
afternoon. Wind flow continues to be from the southwest to west
and again this will enhance precipitation in the Sierra, but
limit accumulations over the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County
desert due to downsloping. By Thursday night and Friday morning
the threat of any additional precipitation diminishes as the
frontal band moves to the east of the area. Snow levels will start
out rather high, at or above 8000 feet however by Friday morning
levels will fall to around 6000 over the Yosemite area and to
around 7000 feet in southern Tulare County. The winter storm watch
will remain in effect this morning with the majority of the
precipitation and snow targeting areas from Sequoia Park north to
Yosemite.

Burn scar areas will need to be closely monitored with the
Detwiler burn far enough north to get in on some of the
potentially heavier rain, while the Pier Fire area will see some
topographic enhanced rain.

Ridging is progged to move into the forecast area this weekend for
dry weather with the next potential for rain and snow arriving
over the northern sections on Tuesday of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
Local MVFR visibility in the San Joaquin Valley due to mist and
haze through 18Z today. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday
night CAZ097.

Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through late Thursday
night CAZ096.

&&

$$

public...Dudley
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Dudley

weather.gov/hanford



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