Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 170020
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
420 PM PST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of pacific storm systems will bring wet weather to
central California through early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first in another series of storms has been impacting central
California today with up to a few tenths of an inch of rain in the
San Joaquin Valley, tapering to a few hundredths in the south end.
Higher amounts have been received in the higher terrain with snow
levels running around 7-8 thousand feet. The light to moderate
precipitation will continue through this evening, mainly south of
Fresno County, with little to none expected in the desert zones.

By late tonight-early Friday morning, the next slug of moisture
will be taking aim on the southern portion of our area. This is
ahead of the next shortwave impulse dropping southeast toward the
California coast. A good moisture fetch with this system will
bring 10 to 20 inches of snow over the Sierra zones above 7000
feet Friday morning into Saturday morning as the plume spreads
across central California. A winter storm warning remains in
effect for this. Copius rainfall below the snow level with this
moisture surge can produce flash flooding with the already wet
soil and full waterways. A flash flood watch remains in effect for
the foothills, as well as the mountains and desert areas of Kern
County, Friday morning into Saturday morning.

Tight surface pressure gradients developing ahead of the
approaching low pressure system will lead to strong southerly
winds across the area especially over the mountains and below the
passes in the south end of the San Joaquin valley. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for the San Joaquin Valley for Friday morning
through Friday evening and a High Wind Warning for the Kern County
mountains where wind gusts around 70 mph are expected. These
higher winds may also be experienced on the south end of the
Valley floor just below the mountains.

Models are in general agreement, swinging the upper low inland
across southern CA Saturday, with lingering showery activity
continuing over our area. Saturday night through Sunday should
bring a brief break from the precipitation under weak shortwave
ridging. By Monday another impulse tracks across the area followed
by another low pressure system by Wednesday. Trajectory and
strength of these systems is not yet certain but They are expected
to bring a continuation of the unsettled pattern. Temperatures
will generally run near climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County Desert,
areas of MVFR and local IFR in rain, developing by 06z Friday. In
the Southern Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, increasing
areas mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds and precipitation
spreading across the area after 06z Friday. In the Tehachapi
mountains, continued areas mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds
and precipitation.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
CAZ093>099.

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Friday CAZ089>092.

High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Friday CAZ095.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Saturday ABOVE
7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...MV
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford


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