Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 212145
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
245 PM PDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region today and bring dry
weather and warmer than normal temperatures through the early
portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of higher pressure over the West Coast today provided for
sunny and warm conditions. In addition, with a more stable air-
mass over the region, lighter winds prevailed near the surface
with breezy conditions remaining aloft. Mixing of the winds down
to the surface later this afternoon may allow for a light breeze
near sunset this evening. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected for
the next 24 to 48 hours.

In the short term, meso-scale models continue to progging the
passage of a disturbance through the area on Sunday that may
reach the northern sections of the district. As the southern tip
of the disturbance sweeps the northern side of Central California,
dynamic forcing may be weak for precipitation as only clouds and
winds will be on the increase on Sunday. Therefore, will not
introduce a mention of precipitation during the weekend, but, will
keep the breezes going as well as a cooling trend in temperatures
toward Monday.

In the longer term periods, models coming into better agreement
toward the middle of next week. Models showing better consensus
toward a moist zonal flow pattern aims for Pacific Northwest and
Northern California. At this point, a majority of the longer range
deterministic and ensemble models are leaning toward a more
certain zonal flow solution with a tap of subtropical moisture
from the Central Pacific. Atmospheric river type analysis
continues to show a very long fetch of moisture associated with
this mid-week event that still has a trajectory toward the Pacific
Northwest and Northern California. While models are not placing
the best certainty over Central California during the event, a
slight shift in the moisture plume could allow for at least a
slight chance of measurable precipitation for areas north of
Kings/Tulare County. Therefore, will include precipitation in the
Late Monday going into early Tuesday time frame. However, at this
point, models are trending toward weak height rises on Wednesday
which may hamper the precipitation development. Therefore, will
terminate the precipitation on Wednesday as models suggest heights
rises toward the latter part of next week and a return to sunny
and warm conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central CA interior
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

public...Molina
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford



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