Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
000
FXUS66 KHNX 122101
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
201 PM PDT Tue Mar 12 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A storm system will bring generally light precipitation through
this afternoon.
2. Gusty westerly winds will occur along the Mojave Desert Slopes
through early Wednesday morning and spread into the desert floor
this afternoon and evening.
3. The probability of strong northeasterly winds over the
mountains, northern San Joaquin Valley, and Kern County desert
from Wednesday evening through Thursday.
4. A warming and drying trend will continue through early next
week. High temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley are forecast
to climb to around 80 degrees by next Monday and Tuesday, around
10 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A few showers continue with some light snow over the Sierras
this afternoon as an upper trough pushes through the region into
the Great Basin tonight. The Kern County Desert will continue to
experience strong gusty winds through tomorrow morning. The
focus for tonight and Wednesday will be the wind over the
desert. The probabilistic data with the high resolution
ensembles has only 10% probability of exceeding 58 mph where the
larger NBM set has 70-90%. The performance supports the higher
resolution probabilistic guidance. The higher resolution
supports a 70% probability of 50 mph supporting the current
wind advisory in place for the desert.
The focus then shifts to Wednesday night into Thursday for the
wind highlights. An upper trough deepens into an upper cut off
low that drops in from the Pacific Northwest down to the lower
Colorado River Basin early Thursday through Friday and then
oscillates and fills over the region through the middle of next
week. The primary impacts of elevated wind, called the Mono
Wind, have increased in probability for the period of Wednesday
night through mid-day on Friday. The upper level wind pattern is
favorable for the Mono event late Wednesday through Thursday
with the meridional flow enhancing the Mono event. The
probabilities peak on Thursday with most elevations above 5,000
feet in the 70-90% range along the Sierra Nevada. A high wind
watch has been issued for the Sierra Nevada and Kern County
Desert with high probabilities of exceeding 58 mph. The northern
end of the San Joaquin Valley has increasing probabilities of
wind gusts to 40-45 mph for Wednesday night into early Thursday
and have raised the wind advisory flag for those region. The
probabilities are not supportive of the Mono wind getting far
down into the foothills or Valley, however these events are
difficult to forecast and this event being in a shoulder season
it does have to be watched for wind highlight expansion with
future shifts.
Friday the upper flow is much less as the upper low settles into
the lower Colorado Basin and upper winds weaken for the region.
The flow remains from the northeast supporting the warming
trend for the region.
Saturday through Wednesday the focus turns to temperatures as
the mercury rises into the 70s starting on Friday and
threatening the 80 degree mark next week.
Looking at the probabilities of hitting the 75 degree mark,
about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, are as
follows:
Location Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
Merced 21% 26% 46% 66%
Madera 26% 31% 61% 66%
Fresno 31% 46% 76% 71%
Hanford 26% 41% 66% 66%
Visalia 21% 26% 61% 66%
Porterville 6% 16% 46% 56%
Bakersfield 6% 16% 46% 56%
Edwards AFB 2% 16% 41% 46%
China Lake 6% 41% 56% 66%
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR for the SJV terminals with TEMPO MVFR ending by 03Z for
KVIS/KBFL, along with some VFR HZ reports in the region. Sierra
Nevada and Kern County Mountains: MVFR/IFR with Mountain
Obscurations probable through 12Z then improving. Kern County
Desert: VFR. Strong Surface winds continues through the period.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED: 03/11/2024 14:33
EXPIRES: 03/12/2024 23:59
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning
for CAZ323-326-328-330-331-337>339.
Wind Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday for
CAZ301-302.
Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ337-339.
&&
$$
public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
PIO/IDSS....DS
weather.gov/hanford