Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 212151
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
251 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will near normal through today then will begin to
warm up again this weekend. Dry conditions will prevail except for
the possibility of an isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra
Nevada Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A somewhat typical summer`s day as hot and dry conditions persist
into the weekend. What is not so typical is the amount of smoke
in the atmosphere from wildfires burning across Central
California. The current weather pattern is calling for stagnant
conditions to persist as smoke accumulates across the area.
Currently, an Air Quality Alert is in effect for most of Central
California Interior as unhealthy air conditions are expected to
persist through at least next week. In addition, the heat will
make a comeback during the weekend as 100 degree temperatures will
become widespread. With the lack of any strong winds, will not
expect much to changes for another day or two.

Yet, some change in the current weather pattern is progged
starting early next week. Model upper-air analysis and water-
vapor satellite imagery is indicating a possible weak disturbance
approaching California from the west. Current satellite imagery
has the disturbance located about 900 miles off the Central
California Coast and moving slowly West-Northwest. Models have
this disturbance approaching the Northern California by
Sunday...allowing for a more southerly flow pattern to set-up over
the district. Therefore, will expect dry conditions until early
next week as models prog a surge of subtropical moisture pushing
up by the end of the weekend. Will introduce a slight chance of
precipitation on Sunday...over the Sierra Crest...ahead of the
main area of deep moisture. Models prog a deepening of moisture
over the West Coast on Monday for even better chances of
precipitation. However, models only showing a weak southeasterly
flow pattern developing early next week. Therefore, will confine
the precipitation to the Mountains and Deserts from Monday through
Wednesday.

Model analysis later next week shows the upper level disturbance
pushing through California and shifting into the Great Basin. With
a return of the onshore flow pattern later next week, will allow
the precipitation to diminish. Therefore, best chances of
precipitation will exist from Monday through Wednesday for the
mountains and deserts. While precipitation may linger over the
mountains on Thursday, the potential will continue to diminish
through the end of the forecast period. Models do show high
uncertainty in the later periods, but do have a signal toward a
trof over California later on Wednesday. Therefore, will keep the
forecast on track toward a drier period later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities in smoke from area
wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX product.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

public...Molina
avn/fw...Riley
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford


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