Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 152341
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
341 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system off the Pacific Northwest coast is expected
to bring widespread rain and heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada high
country through Thursday night. High pressure returns late in the
week for a dry weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite loops show increasing cloudiness and mid-
level moisture streaming over much of the central California
interior. Latest radar images indicate developing showers over
the Sierra Nevada and foothills in and near Yosemite National
Park. Expect more rainfall to arrive to Yosemite and Merced County
this evening, and will spread southward through Thursday night.
The heaviest precipitation will impact the northern portions of
the forecast area, especially in Yosemite. The heaviest amounts in
the San Joaquin Valley are expected to be mainly around Merced
County, or over an inch during tonight through Thursday night.
Rainfall declines further south; in the south end of the valley in
Kern County perhaps a few hundredths of an inch will fall (mainly
Thursday afternoon for these locations). Significant precipitation
will also fall over the Sierra as far south as Sequoia National
Park, although is not expected to be as heavy as around Yosemite
due to the trajectory of this system and associated atmospheric
river (or subtropical moisture plume that is currently over
northern California).

There is also the potential for flooding near the Parkline Slab in
Yosemite, as well as burn areas in the Sierra Nevada and
foothills below 7,000 feet. The area of most concern is in and
around Yosemite National Park, so a Flood Watch has been posted
for tonight through Thursday night when the heaviest rainfall is
most likely to occur.

Precipitation will taper off by Friday morning, although some
lingering clouds and showers will occur on west/northwest-facing
slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains in Kern County. Otherwise, a
dry weekend is in store as a ridge of high pressure builds over
the region. Dense fog is a possibility during the nights and
mornings in the San Joaquin Valley on this weekend, or beginning
Friday night.

Another storm system will briefly move over mainly the central and
northern portions of the forecast area, or Fresno County and
northward during Sunday night into Monday. At this time, this
system appears to have lesser amounts of moisture and will move
over these areas fairly quickly. After Monday, another ridge of
high pressure is expected to build and bring a return to dry
conditions and above average temperatures through at least the
middle part of next week, although this pattern could continue
into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
Increasing mountain obscuring IFR conditions due to low clouds and
precipitation over the southern Sierra Nevada tonight through
Thursday night. Areas of MVFR and local IFR in low clouds and
precipitation over the southern Sierra foothills and San Joaquin
Valley during this period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday
ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE CAZ097.

Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening BELOW 7000
FEET FOR THE CAZ093-096.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ096.

&&

$$

public...BSO
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...BSO

weather.gov/hanford


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