Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272153
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z THURSDAY)...THE COLD UPPER TROF THAT
CROSSED THE NRN ROCKIES IS HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THRU CENTRAL UT
AND SHOULD REACH THE FAR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE TAIL END OF THE TROF
DYNAMICS KEPT A BAND OF SHOWERS ACTIVE AS IT CROSSED NWRN UT BUT
THIS HAS NOW LIFTED OUT OF THE CWA. RESIDUAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
LINGERING OVER NRN UT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY SUNSET. THE
GUSTY PRE AND POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING.

THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT SETTLES INTO MOST OF THE CWA
BY TUE MORNING AND KEEPS DRY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THRU
WED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS OVER THE N. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST
TO DIP TO RATHER COOL READINGS NOT SEEN SINCE THE END OF MAY. THE
EXPECTED LOW OF 51 AT SLC WOULD TIE THE RECORD LOW FOR THE DATE.
LOWS AGAIN TUE NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COOL.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
AND BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS FROM OREGON TO TEXAS. OTHER THAN SOME
MINOR SHIFTING...THIS RIDGE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HELP CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHIFTING RIDGE IS SOME MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER
ON THURSDAY...AND HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
SOUTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THIS MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE STATE.

THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
SLOWLY BUT SURELY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ABOUT THE SPEED/TIMING OF THIS MOISTURE
GETTING UP INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THE IDEA OF INCREASED POPS/CLOUDS IN CENTRAL UTAH ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WITH
THE CURRENT RUNS...IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MIGHT BE THE
BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT. HAVE ALSO
CREATED A SLOW COOLING TREND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GOING INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z THEN BACK
TO NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. NO OTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH
THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH THE FAR
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT
AND ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN UTAH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
COOL DRY STABLE AIRMASS IS SPREADING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER
TRANSPORT WINDS BUT WILL ALSO RESULT IN CLEARING INDICES FALLING
BELOW 500 IN MANY AREAS. MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH THURSDAY AND BRINGS A THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK
TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING THREAT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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