Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242239
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
339 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT UTAH THIS
EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL REACH NORTHERN
UTAH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...TRAILING SHORTWAVE FROM THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND IS MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
BECAUSE OF THIS CANCELLED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE...N/NW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT END
OF A RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
OFF THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW
FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN UTAH DURING THIS
TIME...LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS AS THE AIRMASS WARMS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT RIDGETOPS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR RIMING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
STEADILY WARMING AIRMASS.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...HELPING TO BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOIST...ZONAL
FLOW INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH.

SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN
UTAH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ANY AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY. THIS MOIST...ENERGETIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA AND UTAH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS AS LONG AS WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WELL ABOVE CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING CONFIDENCE...THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL CEILINGS NEAR 6000 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED
AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 02Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 01-02Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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