Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 231516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
916 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will shift eastward across the Great
Basin Today, then move off to the east Wednesday. This will allow
a series of weather disturbances to impact Utah late Wednesday,
through the first half of the upcoming weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A mid level ridge along the west coast this morning
is inducing a dry northerly flow downstream across the forecast
area. Meanwhile, a pair of mid level circulations are noted in
satellite imagery which will have an impact on the forecast area
during the midweek timeframe. The first as an upper low
approaching the British Columbia coastline, while further south
another circulation is noted well off the Baja/southern California
coast near 130W.

The British Columbia low is forecast to dig southeast, eventually
carving out a longwave trough across the interior Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies during the day Wednesday, with the
associated cold front pushing into northern Utah by late
afternoon. As this occurs, the mid level ridge along the Pacific
Coast is forecast to shift east and weaken, allowing the southern
low to lift northeast, eventually entraining into the larger
scale trough. Moisture associated with this southern low is
forecast to be pulled northward during the day Wednesday, and
interact with the surface boundary as it crosses northern Utah
late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.

Model soundings suggest perhaps an initial round of high based
convection with gusty winds Wednesday afternoon, followed by a
better chance for measurable rainfall across northern and central
Utah Wednesday evening as the boundary layer continues to cool and

In the near term, updated to reduce sky cover today as only thin
cirrus is expected to cross the forecast area.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at KSLC through the TAF
period. Southerly winds are expected to switch to the northwest
between 17-18Z today.





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