Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 020337
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
937 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE REMNANT OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

STRENGTHENING OF THE STABLE LAYER ABOVE THE RIDGE CRESTS ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE NEAR 700MB FLOW COULD GENERATE ONE
FINAL BURST OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...AND
IN A FEW LOCATIONS OF THE CACHE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE STRONG WINDS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
WASATCH FRONT PLAY OUT...THOUGH SUSPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LAST EVENT.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE...BUT NOT END ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW ALOFT MONDAY WILL KEEP MOISTURE FROM
ADVECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN UTAH. LOOKING AT TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS LATE IN
THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND LASTING BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO CUT OFF...ONCE
AGAIN...AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
BY EARLY FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT
WARM ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE LEANING CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM REMARKABLY THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTED IN BOTH
GFS AND EC MODELS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL APPROACH
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE LOW
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS A POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND BROADENS A TROUGH SLIDING DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STABLE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE STABLE NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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