Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 151555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
955 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will stall across southern Utah today. A
second system will cross the area late Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...MSAS data places the now stalled surface cold front
over southern Utah this morning. An unseasonably cool and stable
air mass trailing the front will remain across the northern third
of Utah today.

Across central Utah the near 700mb baroclinic zone will be the
focus for generally light convective precip through at least
midafternoon. The mid-level trough moving east along the low-level
boundary will generate sufficient lift for showers, and maybe a
thunderstorm or two along the eastern end of the boundary over
northeast Utah. The mid-level trough will exit to the east late in
the afternoon, leading to a end to most convection by late
afternoon or early evening.

Down south the vorticity lobe rotating through the base of the
upper trough centered over the Great Basin will move fairly
quickly east near the Arizona border today. This feature is
generating a few light showers/virga along and south of the
stalled surface front. These showers may enhance a bit through
mid-afternoon as the left exit region of the upper jet enhances
upper divergence across southern Utah.

Lingering convection behind the exiting trough should wind down
during the evening hours across southern and eastern Utah.
The next upper features of interest will arrive over western Utah
by late afternoon or early evening Wednesday. Outside of the
mountains, not anticipating much in the way of convection ahead of
this feature as the ambient air mass will still be marginally
unstable even at peak heating. The best chance for precip will
come Wednesday night through Thursday morning as this next trough
works east across central and southern Utah

A weak and somewhat drier westerly flow aloft to end the week will
bring warmer temps with any convection likely confined to the
southern/central mountains.

Will monitor max temps today, with an eye toward raising them a
few degrees up north. For now no update planned to the morning
forecast package.


.AVIATION...The cool and stable air mass across northern Utah will
serve to maintain VFR conditions across the KSLC terminal today.
Northerly surface will develop between 16z and 17z, then continue
through around 04z.





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