Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 042152
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
352 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING IN A WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING
IN SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

SOUTHERLIES WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE TOMORROW...AND COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOUTHWESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT...HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW COULD ALSO BE EVEN WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOMORROW...BUT GUSTY WIND GUSTS DUE TO VIRGA
IS MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE PRECIP...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.

THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA
BORDER. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON THIS SHIFT FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...AND THEY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED A FAIR AMOUNT
MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS ONCE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE LOBES
INCREASES IN CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...THE ELONGATED COLD CORE OF THE
TROUGH IN PLACE WILL SHIFT NORTH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WRAPAROUND ENVIRONMENT /ON THE NE
QUADRANT IF THE LOW AND CAA/ MAY CLIP FAR NORTHERN UT/SW WYOMING
DURING THE DAY...BUT FOCUSED FORCING/PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY MOST AREAS DUE TO MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE HOWEVER.

GLOBAL MODELS HINTING AT A SECONDARY LOBE ROTATING WSW ACROSS
SW WYOMING/NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS THEN DEVELOPS A
NOTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL PASS SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION MAY TREND PRECIP POTENTIAL LESS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND RELATIVELY FOCUSED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...BUT HAVE NOT FULLY LATCHED ONTO INCREASING THE CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY MORNING. DID UP THE AFTERNOON POPS BY
BETWEEN 5-10 PERCENT HOWEVER. THESE DETAILS SHOULD LARGELY BE
IRONED OUT AFTER A FEW MORE RUNS.

PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALLOW A DRYING MID LEVEL
FLOW TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPAWN LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIONOVER AND NEAR THE TERRAIN.

MODELS HAVING SOME CHALLENGES RESOLVING THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE
NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH LATE TUE INTO
MIDWEEK. OPTED TO LEAVE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LARGELY
UNCHANGED AS SUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22-
01Z...THOUGH SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 7KTS. THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS UTAH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING STORM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WETTING RAINS ARE MUCH
MORE LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN EARNEST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SCHOENING/MERRILL/KRUSE


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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