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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000
FXUS65 KSLC 152149
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
349 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Precipitation will taper off into Tuesday as a storm
system pushes out of Utah. Once showers end early Tuesday, dry
conditions will last through the day. A weak cold front could
bring northern valley rain and mountain snow showers Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...Low pressure positioned just
east of the Utah and Colorado border has brought valley rain and
mountain snow to southwest Wyoming and Utah as it tracked across
southern Utah during the day. A deformation axis with enhanced
precipitation rates set up from southwest to northeast early, from
roughly the Ogden area mountains, southwest to the Tooele Valley,
and south into southern Utah. These locations are where the most
valley rain and mountain snow was. More than 1 inch of rain was
recorded at Ogden, with around 0.75" for portions of the Tooele
valley. Mountain snow exceeded 6 inches where that was
established. While those locations overperformed, others
underperformed, as precipitation was lighter and more scattered
away from the deformation axis.

The deformation axis will diminish as the low tracks north and
east. A shortwave rotating through in northwest flow will keep
scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers above around 7500
feet for southwest Wyoming and most of Utah. Additional snow
accumulations will range from roughly 1-4 inches.

Gusty northwest winds will last through the evening throughout
northwest Utah and into Tuesday for Castle Country. Gusts will
likely peak around 45 mph for places like Emery, Castle Dale, and
Huntington, but models guidance suggests a low probability for
high enough values for a watch or warning.

For Tuesday, a transient ridge will track through, with clouds
decreasing through the morning and mostly sunny conditions most of
the day. Temperatures will warm to slightly warmer than normal.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...A broad trough with origins
over interior Canada will graze past northern portions of the
forecast area to begin the long-term period. An associated
baroclinic zone will try to nudge southward into the northern
third of Utah and southwest Wyoming, producing cooler temperatures
and a drier air mass overall on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated
to scattered mountain showers are possible on Wednesday as that
baroclinic zone pushes south, taking advantage of some lingering
mid-level moisture and just enough lift. While temperatures across
northern areas will be moderated by this cooler air mass,
remaining near normal through Friday, central and southern areas
will gradually warm through the week, hovering near 5-10 degrees
above normal. Given this strong gradient from north to south,
eastern valleys could see breezy westerly winds on Wednesday,
though winds are likely (70% chance) to remain below advisory
criteria.

The aforementioned baroclinic zone is likely to start shifting
northward again by Friday, though 30% of ensemble members suggest a
delayed movement, more like Saturday. This will produce another
round of light mountain showers across northern areas and will allow
for more warming as the cooler air mass exits the area.

Uncertainty increases in the longwave pattern heading into the
weekend. Roughly 50% of ensemble members suggest the development of
a ridge over the western US, which would produce more of a warming
trend and generally drier conditions. The other half of members
favor more of an active pattern, with various solutions of shortwave
troughs moving across the area, which would increase our
precipitation chances and bring in cooler temperatures once again.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Low clouds and rain showers along with MVFR
conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the evening.
Conditions begin to dry after 06Z with CIGs rising above VFR
thresholds, but a few low clouds will remain and create some
intermittent mountain obscuration. Light southerly winds beginning
~23Z will persist overnight.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Valley rain and mountain snow
showers creating IFR/MVFR CIGs will gradually diminish throughout
the evening as low pressure shifts east. Conditions become mostly
dry after 06Z with improving flight categories back to VFR for most
locations. A few low clouds will linger overnight resulting in
intermittent mountain obscuration. Winds will be breezy out of the
north for southern Utah with lighter and more variable winds across
the north.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ111>113-117-125.

WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wilson
LONG TERM...Cunningham
AVIATION...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity