Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271038
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL UTAH WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL UT PER SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION REMAINED
ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW OVER SRN UT
OVERNIGHT AND ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE CROSSING THE SERN
CWA THROUGH SUNRISE.

SHOWERS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO APPEAR ON RADAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW AND EXPECT THESE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NRN CWA. THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE THRU THE MORNING BUT
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO SET OFF DEEPER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP ACROSS THE NERN CWA.

THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALTHO IT COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT
OVER WY AND THE UINTA MTNS.

RIDGING BRINGS A DRY AND WARMER AIRMASS TO THE CWA THU THRU FRI
ALTHO THE RIDGE SHIFTS E BY LATE FRI AND SWLY FLOW INCREASES INTO
SAT AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MODELS HINT THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER THE CWA
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING OF THE SHORT
WAVE FEATURES ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THIS TROF. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NRN UT SOMETIME SAT THAT GETS
AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COOL AIR INTO SUN. THE EC IS A BIT DEEPER
AND SLOWER AND IMPLIES A BETTER THREAT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXTENT AND TIMING OF
THE PRECIP THREAT SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SLC TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE SHIFTED THE WINDS TO A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 13-15Z.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SALT LAKE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AT TIMES.

BARRING DISRUPTION FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-20Z. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN USUAL IN THE WIND SHIFT...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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