458
FXUS65 KSLC 292107
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions are
expected to continue into early next week, with moisture
increasing for the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...Seeing light flow over Utah
and southwest Wyoming this afternoon as high pressure amplifies
over the Great Basin. Temperatures this afternoon are pretty
similar to yesterday afternoon, around 5F above seasonal normals, but
with a bit more moisture, seeing higher coverage of high based
showers over the higher terrain, with a few gusts in excess of 40
mph reported. These showers will continue into the early evening
before weakening.

With the ridge continuing to build, a warming trend will commence
on Monday. Highs during the afternoon are forecast to run up to
10F above climo, with the most warming compared to today over
northern portions of the area. With moisture and instability
staying similar to today, afternoon coverage of convection will be
similar to or slightly less than what is being observed today.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday), Issued 322 AM MDT...Long term
starts with the forecast region placed within increasing deep
southerly flow as a ridge remains centered near the Four Corners
region and a trough begins to move ashore along the California
coast. Strong positive H7 anomalies will in turn drive a
continuation of above normal temperatures, while the southerly
flow begins to provide an improving conduit for increasing
moisture advection. While mostly midlevel, this will contribute to
PWATs pushing into the 100-150% of normal range, in turn leading
to an increase in isolated to scattered diurnal convection.
Generally anticipate most convection to fire off of the high
terrain and subsequently drift NNE given the deep flow, and with
the activity more mid/high based in nature, an attendant gusty
outflow wind threat is noted for what does develop.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the trough continue to advance
inland, with a secondary trough then beginning to deepen/translate
into the PacNW. Moisture advection will be maximized these days,
with PWAT values pushing more into the 150-200% of normal range.
This will result in diurnal convection becoming a bit more
widespread, especially given the extra energy from the initial
trough starting to eject through overhead. Any stronger more
organized activity would be capable of frequent lightning, gusty
outflow winds, and locally moderate to heavy rain (most impactful to
rain sensitive basins/areas). As such, those planning recreation or
outdoor events through the middle of the week should remain weather
aware. Temperatures will trend downward through this time, pushing
back to near to slightly above normal values for Thursday`s high
marks.

Guidance continues to diverge a bit on how the pattern evolves into
Friday. The general consensus is that the initial trough will be
translating out of the area, with more west/southwesterly flow from
the secondary trough yielding a less favorable path for moisture
transport. While this would result in decreasing moisture overall,
many models do still maintain sufficient moisture to result in some
isolated to scattered diurnal convective development once again. If
the initial trough and better pool of moisture can eject a bit
quicker, could see convective chances trend downward, or the
opposite if it trends slower/has longer residence time. Right now it
seems around 25% of ensemble members favor wetter, around 15% drier,
and the remainder somewhere in the middle. Given festivities
surrounding the Independence Day holiday, those planning on hosting
or attending events will probably want to keep an eye out for how
the forecast ultimately trends.

The secondary trough will remain more or less in place in some
fashion, but the fairly weak nature and limited moisture flow will
yield decreasing precipitation chances moving into the weekend.
Temperatures will also trend upward slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds with occasional gusts to
around 15kts will continue until a later than normal transition to
light and southeasterly around 05-07z (low chance of even later).
Winds will likely be light and variable at times overnight. Cumulus
build-ups on higher terrain this afternoon are very unlikely to
produce showers impacting KSLC.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed mainly over the higher terrain of E-UT
and SW-WY this afternoon; these showers may drift over adjacent
valleys, bringing gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30-40kts to
KPUC/KU69. A couple isolated showers may even drift over KPVU/KHCR,
with a low chance of gusty outflow winds reaching 25-30kts before
01z. Most showers and thunderstorms will diminish by 02-03z, with
largely terrain-driven winds overnight. Breezy easterly winds up to
15-25kts are possible Monday morning at KEVW, KLGU, KHIF, and
maybe KOGD, too.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Conditions remain mild and generally dry across Utah
this afternoon as high pressure amplifies over the great basin.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed over the higher
terrain, with a few of these storms producing some gusty and
erratic winds. The showers will continue into the early evening
before dissipating. Under the influence of high pressure,
temperatures will steadily warm Monday into Tuesday, reaching
values 10F or more above seasonal normals for highs Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday, a California trough moving onshore will
increase southerly flow enough to draw moisture northward,
increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday
as temperatures become less hot. Any storms that develop will be
capable of producing lightning as well as gusty and erratic
microburst winds. With the trough moving into the Desert Southwest
by Friday, a drying trend will commence over the area, though
uncertainty remains with how quick this drying will occur.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Warthen
AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity