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000
FXUS65 KSLC 062333
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
433 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL CROSS UTAH
TONIGHT. THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PLUME THAT MOVED
INTO NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE INITIAL WAVE EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO
SPAWN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL IN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FINALLY APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH UTAH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UTAH THIS EVENING AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE HOVERING IN THE 7000-7500FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO QUICKLY
LOWER...FALLING BELOW 6000FT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGHER VALLEYS.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE INTO EASTERN UTAH
TOMORROW...MAINTAINING THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND ALLOWING FOR SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHOWERS
MAY ALSO BECOME ENHANCED A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 TO -9C ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TOMORROW...SNOW
MAY REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BUT WITH LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION. HAVE KEPT EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS IN PLACE.

POSTFRONTAL WINDS ACROSS FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GUST IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE CANYONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT AS NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW PICKS UP ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH.

SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. SUNDAY WILL BE ESPECIALLY WARM AS
700MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 0C.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH MIDDAY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT AS
H7 TEMPS ARE NEAR 2C DEGREES AT 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER THE H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS QUITE STRONG WITH NEAR -8C DEGREES BY 00Z TUESDAY
SO DESPITE NEAR 60 IN THE MORNING THERE IS A THREAT THAT SNOW COULD
MIX IN BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS
LIKE A HIGH POP EVENT THE QPF DOES NOT LOOK VERY ENCOURAGING DUE TO
LACK OF COLD AIR AT H5 LEVEL. THERE IS ONLY A 13-16 DEGREE SPREAD
BETWEEN H7 AND H5 WHICH IS RATHER STABLE.

THE GFS AND EC DIFFER IN EXITING THE TROUGH AS THE GFS KEEPS A
COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALBEIT
DRY TROUGHS...THEY DO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EC HAS BARELY A BRUSH BY ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT THEN STARTS A WARM UP IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY
WITH H7 WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE H7 DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT 5C DEGREES. HAVE SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL AT THE
SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 23-24Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS WITH A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN BETWEEN 23 AND 01Z. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/STRUTHWOLF

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VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)