Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 040430
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS
EVENING WILL RECENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA THIS EVENING COULD
WORK NORTH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST UTAH AS THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH SATURDAY MORNING...LEADING TO AN
EARLY START TO CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN
UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT MOVING THROUGH AT PEAK
HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TURN EAST OUT OF CENTRAL
NEVADA...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTHWEST BACK INTO THE BASIN WILL
LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WELL ABOVE 12000 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SPOTTY WETTING RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH AND EAST
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TREND TO INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SUCH...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING A RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER PERIOD TO
THE DISTRICT THROUGH THAT TIME.

A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE WEEK...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...CONGER
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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