Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 012155
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
355 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
MOVES INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE NORTH OF AN
ELONGATING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL SIERRA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS ARE
SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS...THE MOST NOTABLE CURRENTLY SPINNING
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE 700MB FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION HAVE ABATED
CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING...SUFFICIENT EASTERLY COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH WEAKER COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT AND A WEAKER GRADIENT SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...AND HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE
40-50 MPH RANGE...AND ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED LOW END WARING GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FARMINGTON AREA WANTED TO EMPHASIZE
THIS EVENT WILL BE MUCH SMALLER IN MAGNITUDE AND AS SUCH WENT WITH
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.

MEANWHILE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF UTAH...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

THIS LOW ALONG WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN/FILL THROUGH MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
WHATS LEFT OF THIS AXIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY.
HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL RESIDE NORTH OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS.

BY TUESDAY RIDING BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE LIKELY INHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY WITH RISING HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
CONSIDERABLY AREAWIDE. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A DRY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING 80F ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TO CUT OFF...ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA BY EARLY
FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE LEANING CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...HOWEVER SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF UTAH LATER IN THE PERIOD.

700 MB TEMPERATURES WARM REMARKABLY THROUGH FRIDAY DEPICTED IN BOTH
GFS AND EC MODELS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN
UTAH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL APPROACH
UPPER 70S AND EVEN 80 ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

MODELS DIFFER GREATLY BY SUNDAY...AS THE ECMWF NOW SPLITS THE LOW
WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY SPINNING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS A POTENTIAL VORT LOBE
INTO NEW MEXICO AND BROADENS A TROUGH SLIDING DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT SLC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX BY 03Z THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ002.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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