Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 280907
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
307 AM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Several weak disturbances will cross the region
through the first part of next week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...
Water Vapor loop shows a closed low over British Columbia
starting to elongate into the Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, weak
waves are passing through the trough axis in the Southern stream
to our west within the mean flow. AMDAR 400-200MB wind
observations place a 75- 105kt Northwesterly jet into the Pacific
Northwest. GOES/HRRR/00Z KSLC RAOB indicate the precipitable water
value ranges from 0.25"- 0.40" mountains to 0.45"-0.65" most
Given radar trends and a weak wave progressing overhead have a
slight chance of a shower (mainly virga) this morning. Then
indications are from the Short Range Ensembles that moderate
instability develops along the spine of the Wasatch and Eastern
Nevada with more stability across NW Utah. Kept this idea in the PoP
grids this afternoons with no PoPs mentioned Provo Northward,
instead focusing isolated to scattered convection across
With ridging building overhead tonight as heights lower along
Central California, strengthening anticyclonic flow and remnant
instability support lingering activity spreading into Northern
Even better instability tomorrow and with Southerly flow kept
Dixie/Lake Powell dry during the afternoon. Best development on the
higher terrain along the Wasatch Spine and higher terrain of Eastern
Nevada, converging into Northern Utah Sunday night.
Brought in a slight chance of showers for Dixie late Sunday night as
the aforementioned closed low approaches West Central Arizona.
Warming trend this weekend. Snow level should range between 10-
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...
The upper low which forecast models create a cut off low
circulating off the Central California coast over the weekend,
will take a southern track across northern Arizona/southern Utah
to start the week. With the mean mid-level flow turning
northwesterly from a ridge next in the saddle building in over the
West Coast, marginal instability across the central and southern
Utah mountains for the early part of the week will allow
convection potential. Once the low digs far enough south,
northwest flow aloft will aid in diminishing the available
moisture under the ridge of high pressure.
Warming temperatures through the week and a mostly dry airmass in
place will create more summer-like conditions across the Great Basin
.AVIATION...For the SLC terminal, expecting light winds to prevail
through the day. While light and variable, winds should persist
from the north early on as they were during the overnight period.
Scattered clouds with cigs approaching 8000 ft at times should
clear after 18z.
.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered convection can be expected
today and tomorrow across the region. In addition to the threat of
lightning, convection is likely to contain dry microburst wind gusts
due to the drying sub-cloud layer.
A drying/warming trend is forecast especially for Southern Utah
through the weekend.
Gusty Northwest winds are possible Monday into Tuesday as this
First significant warming/drying trend of the year on tap during
the second half of the work week as a ridge builds in.
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Rogowski
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