Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CLIP NORTHERN UTAH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 06Z FRI)...A WARM SWLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING DOWNSTREAM FROM A TROF MOVING INTO THE PACNW. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROF KEPT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. SUSPECT
LITTLE OF THIS WAS REACHING THE GROUND AND IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OUT OF THE CWA.

CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO NWRN UT AS THE PACNW TROF LIFTS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS SPREADS INTO THE WASATCH FRONT THIS EVE BUT COVERAGE DROPS
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY SOUTH OF ABOUT OGDEN. A LITTLE OF THIS COULD
LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WASATCH
PLATEAU AND UINTAS THIS AFTN DYING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. TEMPS
WILL COOL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VERY WARM SOUTH. A LITTLE TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE
OVER THE NRN MTNS.

THE NEXT WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE NRN CWA LATE WED THRU WED NIGHT. THIS
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE WASATCH FRONT
VALLEYS. SOME ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU OVER THE MTNS AND
NORTH AS A TROF DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND THE FLOW OVER THE
CWA BACKS AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...THE GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE LEADER
IN DEEPENING THE NEXT TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH THE 00Z EC RUN
TRENDING TOWARD THE POSITION OF THE GFS. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF WHERE
THIS TROUGH IS SETTING UP COMES INTO THE FACT THAT SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED FROM A STORM SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MORE TYPICAL OF A SEPTEMBER TYPE SITUATION. MOISTURE
WILL BE BROUGHT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY MORNING AND
INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY AFTERNOON. THE EC NOW SUPPORTS THIS IDEA
WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW FURTHER WEST IT ALLOWS THE MOISTURE
PLUME TO COME INTO UTAH VERSES FARTHER EAST AS EARLIER RUNS
SHOWED.

SINCE THERE IS STILL 40 METERS OF HEIGHT DISCREPANCY WITHIN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTORS OF THE STORM BY 12Z
SATURDAY HAVE KEPT FROM GETTING TOO EXCITED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING. AS NOTED THERE IS ROOM FOR THIS LOW TO BE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD PULL THE MOISTURE PLUME EVEN FARTHER WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVEL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY DAYS WHEN TEMPS MAY GO BELOW NORMAL WILL BE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
IN AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT
TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS.
METEOROLOGICALLY SPEAKING...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE MET OVER
THE WESTERN VALLEY ZONES WITH RH BELOW 15 PERCENT AND IN SOME CASES
10 PERCENT WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER THE GREEN CARPET
OF FINE FUELS WILL INHIBIT FIRE STARTS OR GROWTH. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE WASATCH PLATEAU AND
UINTAS AS WELL AS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST DESERT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE SOUTH WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH LOW RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE
LIKELY SPREADING BACK INTO THE FIRE DISTRICT FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z WITH
FURTHER STRENGTHENING BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN 02
AND 04Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE DELAYED OR
POSSIBLY NOT REACH THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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