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000
FXUS65 KSLC 210327
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
927 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY.
A COLD SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE SRN CWA THIS EVE
ALONG THE WEAK STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THRU THE CWA
TODAY DRYING THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT THIS TO PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALTHO CLOUDS AND WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER THRU THE NIGHT. EVEN SO...THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
FROM THESE LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR ZERO.

THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME
WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST BY MON AFTN AS A MILD SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
THE REMAINS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FEATURE AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT BASIN INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NRN UT LATE MON AFTN THRU THE
EVE. MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN
TOMORROW AFTN AS WELL FROM THE SRN MTNS NWD. DONT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP FROM THIS BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND A MILD AIRMASS AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION
SHOULD BRING A WARM DAY MON AREA-WIDE. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP PAC TROF. NEW 00Z NAM REMAINS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT KEEPING IT WEST OF SLC TIL AFT 00Z WED
BUT DOES DEVELOP A VERY TIGHT POST FRONTAL SFC GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SALT FLATS THAT CROSSES THE WASATCH FRONT BY 03Z. THIS WOULD BE
TOO SLOW IF THE NEW GFS AND EC REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREV
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUE SO CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH APPEARS ON TRACK.

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TERRIBLY MOIST BUT IT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
POST FRONTAL PRECIP TO THE WASATCH FRONT AND ADJACENT MTNS. NEW
NAM IS FORECASTING ABOUT 1/3 TO 2/3 OF AN INCH OF WATER IN THIS
AREA AND THIS WOULD BE ALL SNOW IN THE MTNS SO MARGINAL ADVISORY
LEVEL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS IS RIGHT. STILL DONT EXPECT A
MAJOR IMPACT FROM THIS ALTHO IS COULD AFFECT THE WED MORNING
COMMUTE OVER PARLEYS FROM THE PARK CITY AREA. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE WASATCH FRONT VALLEY
FLOORS BUT DONT ANTICIPATE ANY REAL ACCUMULATION BELOW ABOUT 5500
FT.

THIS COLD AIRMASS COULD SEND TEMPS LOCALLY BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE ID BORDER WED MORNING BUT PROBABLY NOT INTO THE 20S.
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT COULD PRECLUDE TEMPS
DROPPING ANY LOWER THU MORNING IN THIS AREA BUT SOME OF THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA COULD DIP
BELOW FREEZING THU MORNING.

UPDATED EARLIER TO LOWER POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS
THE NRN CWA THE REST OF THIS EVE AND SKY COVER IN THESE SAME AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE THE CIRRUS PLUME MOVES EAST. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH ANY CIGS WELL ABV 7000 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 17-19Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 21-22Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     UTZ002>005-014>016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)