606
FXUS65 KSLC 072050
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
250 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build over the southwest
through midweek. Dry conditions and increasingly hot temperatures
will develop by midweek. Hot, dry, and windy conditions may yield
some fire weather danger Wednesday across portions of central and
southern Utah. On Thursday, a weakening trough will clip the area
bringing temperatures back to near normal through Friday, though
unseasonably hot temperatures will return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Wednesday)...Currently, skies remain
mostly clear across the majority of the CWA with the exception of
orographic lift occurring over our typical mountain spots. An
isolated shower or two is possible across our central and southern
high terrain as well as the Uintas this afternoon, though ridging
aloft resulting in strong subsidence with dry air pushing into
the area should greatly limit coverage this afternoon with PoPs
limited to 10%.

Ridging will continue to build tomorrow and with the increase in
heights, we are expected to see another day with temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal across the majority of the forecast area. Lower
elevations will see temperatures make a run for the triple digits,
including the majority of the Wasatch Front. Additionally, lower
Washington county will see temperatures break into the mid 100s,
perhaps making a run at 110 near St. George. Conditions are expected
to remain quite dry once again as stronger subsidence takes hold
which should serve to limit even orographically forced showers other
than light cumulus forming along ridges. Be sure to drink plenty of
water and dress accordingly if outside tomorrow!

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Wednesday), Issued 325 AM MDT...
A shortwave passing through
northern Utah on Wednesday will bring the only (small) chance for
convection to the area through the period. After this passage, high
pressure becomes centered over southern California. This positioning
of the summer ridge is not conducive for a monsoon moisture tap
across Utah. However, the silver lining in this location of the
ridge is that it keeps a light westerly/northerly flow aloft across
the area that will help to limit how hot temperatures get.

Southerly flow will increase ahead of the approaching shortwave.
This will result in southerly winds gusting in the 20-30 mph range
across much of the area. These gusty winds will pair with RH values
in the upper single digits to low teens. Mid and upper level
moisture will advect into the region as this shortwave passes to the
north. As such, there remains a small chance for some convection on
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings with inverted V
profiles would suggest very little QPF is possible across valleys,
but there will exist the threat for some microburst winds.
Additionally, Wednesday will most likely be the hottest day of the 7
day period as temperatures drop back near normal as northwest flow
becomes established behind the shortwave with high pressure centered
over southern California.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Weather remains quiet with VFR conditions
prevailing, and a few daytime cumulus developing around 10 kft. Wind
magnitudes generally remain less than 15 kts, following a typical
diurnal pattern with NW winds becoming SSE between ~03-05Z Tue, and
back NW ~18-20Z thereafter.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...TAF period once again expected
to remain VFR, with some SCT cumulus developing off area terrain
along with an isolated shower or two. Area terminals will also see a
warming trend continue. Wind directions expected to follow a typical
diurnal cycle, with light magnitudes generally less than 15 kts, and
a few gusts to around 20-25 kts at more exposed or typically gusty
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure extending from the Desert Southwest into
the Four Corners region will result in a continuation of hot and
dry conditions across Utah. Despite the strong ridge, just enough
moisture remains present for the development of one or two widely
isolated showers off of the high terrain during the daytime. Some
gusty erratic outflow winds would be possible in the vicinity of
any activity that does form. Aside from the high pressure, an area
of low pressure remains semi-stationary off the California coast
Monday and Tuesday, resulting in modest enhancement to
southwesterly flow atop the region, and in turn some gusts in the
15-30 mph range. As such, will see some locally elevated to
critical fire weather conditions for brief periods when the wind
picks up.

The area of low pressure eventually starts to come ashore,
pushing through the Great Basin Wednesday. Ahead of an associated
frontal boundary, this will result in the enhancement of low level
winds through the day. This will yield afternoon southwesterly
wind gusts pushing more into the 25-35 mph, which in combination
with the already very low relative humidity values will result in
an expansion of critical fire weather conditions. As such, have
issued a Fire Weather Watch from western to central to southern
Utah. Aside from the gusty conditions, forecast models continue to
suggest some isolated to scattered high based convection may
develop off the high terrain during the day, subsequently drifting
east. Gusty erratic outflow winds would be the primary threat
with anything that does develop. The front is then expected to
pass late Wednesday evening overnight into early Thursday. A few
showers may accompany the front, but the passage is largely
expected to be dry, more marked by a wind shift more west to
northwesterly. Winds will relax some thereafter, with slightly
cooler temperatures expected across central and northern Utah
Thursday and Friday. Conditions once again warm thereafter into
the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ492-493-495>498.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity