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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201106
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
506 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARM
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A DRY COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
FROM DELTA TO EVANSTON BY LATE WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FINAL LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWEST OUT OF
WYOMING...BEST HANDLED BY THE GFS...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THIS LOBE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLIPS INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SHOWER THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AS DOWN SLOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL WARM AND THE DRY THE AIR MASS.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND RAPIDLY AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS HIGHS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND A WEAKLY DEFINED THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE TAVAPUTS AND
UINTAS HAVE KEPT A MINOR POP IN FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS HOLDS TRUE FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AS WELL.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
AND SPIN AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ONE SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PUSHING A DRY COOL FRONT
IN ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE
CWA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO
CREATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
HUNTINGTON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UINTAS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY DUE IN THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS DRY COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONLY AS FAR AS
THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH THE IDEA OF NOT BEING ABLE
TO ERODE THIS LOW LEVEL COOL PUSH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS MODEL FOR THURSDAY AND
A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS.

THE GFS AND EC ARE SIMILAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH REDUCES THE CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY AND
WARM THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL DURING THE
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. THE CIGS
WILL RISE ABOVE THAT LEVEL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS WEAKEN
AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL EXIT THE
FIRE DISTRICT TODAY. SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)