Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 021038
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
438 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL BEGIN TO SEND MOISTURE NORTH INTO UTAH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TIL 06Z SAT)...AN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE PACNW
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT WAVE THAT SEND THE COLD FRONT INTO
NRN UT IS LIFTING THRU MONTANA AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE UT/ID/NV TRIPLE POINT AND WILL BE LIFTING THRU
SRN ID THIS MORNING.

THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL SEND A NEW SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO NRN
UT BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH TODAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
YESTERDAY BUT WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SLIGHT
COOLING OVER THE SOUTH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BUT
THATS ABOUT IT.

ONCE THE MORNING SHORT WAVE PASSES THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FORCE
ANY CONVECTION TODAY ALTHO ISOLATED CELLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE WASATCH PLATEAU NEWD AND NEAR WENDOVER.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES THRU THE BASE OF THE WEAKENING PACNW
TROF ON WED THRU WED NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION TO THE NRN CWA WED AFTN LASTING INTO WED NIGHT.
COVERAGE SHOULD STAY ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE UINTAS NWD THRU THE NRN WASATCH AS WELL
AS ACROSS FAR NWRN UT.

THE FLOW BACKS TO MORE SLY ON THU AS A NEW UPPER TROF STARTS TO
DIG SWD DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS WARMS AND DRIES THE AIRMASS WITH
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THU AFTN/EVE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TROF DROPPING DOWN THE WEST COAST
CLOSES OFF INTO A LOW EARLY THU AND CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH TO
JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST BY FRI MORNING. THE CIRCULATION WITH
THIS LOW TAPS MOISTURE FROM DYING HURRICANE ANDRES IN THE TROPICAL
ERN PAC AND BRINGS THIS MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA ON FRI. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW THAT THIS IS GOING
TO OCCUR SO HAVE BUMPED SHOWER COVERAGE UP TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE
CWA FOR FRI AFTN/EVE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IMPACTS
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AND SRN CA COAST AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY.  THE
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW REMAINS NORTH OF UTAH THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALLOWING THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP TO STREAM NORTH INTO UTAH
ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND FOR MOST
OF STATE AND HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THE WEEKEND WILL DIP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWEST BETWEEN 1700 AND 1900 UTC. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THE SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD OCCUR BEFORE 1700
UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE
DISTRICT UNDER WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH ON MONDAY
EVENING HAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. SOUTH OF THE STALLED
BOUNDARY MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN MOVES DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TAPS INTO DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE BRINGING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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