Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 281004
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SHIFT EAST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE UPPER LOW FROM THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE LAST OF THE WRAPAROUND
CLOUDS JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA.

THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NV AND WILL BRING A DRY STABLE
AND WARMER AIRMASS AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE CWA TODAY.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST FRI AND A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS HAS LITTLE IMPACT BUT DOES
GENERATE A JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH FRI AFTN/EVE.

A BROAD UPPER TROF ENTERS THE PACNW FRI NIGHT WITH BACKING WARM
ADVECTION FLOW OVER THE CWA KEEPING A LOW THREAT OF CONVECTION
GOING OVER THE NORTH INTO SAT. THIS TROF CROSSES THE NRN ROCKIES
SAT AND CLIPS NRN UT. ALTHO THE BEST LIFT REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH THE TROF DOES SEND A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT INTO NRN
UT ON SAT WITH A LITTLE CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU THE MEAN TROF CROSSES NRN UT
SAT NIGHT PUSHING THE FRONT ABOUT 2/3 OF THE WAY THRU THE CWA AND
BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WAVE SHIFTS E EARLY SUN LEAVING A COOL DRY STABLE
AIRMASS N OF THE FRONT AND A DRY WNW FLOW OVER THE CWA BY THE END
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO WARM TO OR ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER
ON THE TIMING OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER
WITH THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THEIR
SOLUTION AND HUNG UNTO SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER FOR ANOTHER DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH WINDS ON
THURSDAY COULD EASILY PUSH THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
INTO THE 90S BUT DID NOT WANT TO MAKE THAT BOLD OF A FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WITH THAT DISPARITY BETWEEN MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ABOUT 19Z WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING
BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FINALLY A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARDS NORMAL. THIS DRYING AND
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO
OF THE REGION AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS PART OF
THE STATE SATURDAY. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE
THAN PREVIOUS STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE... ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
DRY AND WARM WEATHER FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/FIRE/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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