Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS65 KSLC 272220
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIRMASS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
EXIT EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SHOWERS HAVING
DISSIPATED NOW THAT H5 TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO WARM.
OTHERWISE...COLD AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS.
THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND OVERNIGHT
MINS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS A THREAT OF A HARD FREEZE IN SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
AREAS AND NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS. THERE WAS AND STILL IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF MOST AREAS AROUND
09-10Z...ALLOWING THE VALLEYS TO RADIATE OUT NICELY THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE HARD FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
ADDED THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS...CASTLE COUNTRY...AND THE
PORTION OF THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL NEAR GREEN RIVER. ALTHOUGH HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED IN SOME OF THE FORECAST
ZONES...MOST OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO OCCUR IN
AGRICULTURAL AREAS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW...THEN AMPLIFY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA UNDER THIS RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THIS
TIME...BUT ONLY GRADUALLY DUE TO WEAK MIXING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP INTO SATURDAY AS A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET ON
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT ON 700MB LOWS OF -10 DEGREES CELSIUS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH
INITIAL SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 FT. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN WASATCH
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BENCH LEVELS BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MAY REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY
THEN. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REGENERATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO NORTHERN
UTAH ON MONDAY AS THE GFS QUICKLY USHERS A WEAK RIDGE INTO THE
REGION...BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP A BIT STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
WITH HIGH CLOUDS PREDOMINANT INTO THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH
TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 03-04Z. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY
     FOR UTZ002>004-011>013-015.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.