Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 262308

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
508 PM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with
a warming trend through the early portion of the week. A storm
system moving up from the south is expected to bring moisture back
to the area by midweek and this moisture will linger over the area
into the weekend.


.SHORT TERM (Until 06Z Friday)...Strong ridge of high pressure
over the Great Basin today with upper level low over Baja
California. This will keep Utah and southwest Wyoming under a very
dry northeast-east flow aloft for the early portion of the week.
Under the ridge the area will experience a slow warming trend
through midweek with temperatures returning to a bit above normal
by Wednesday.

Upper low over Baja will lift slowly north before becoming an
open wave and drifting through Utah Wednesday and Wednesday night.
As the low lifts north precipitable water values in excess of
.75" spread north through Utah on Wednesday. This combined with
modest instability and convergence associated with approaching
wave should for scattered convection across central and southern
Utah. Threat for convection expands across all of Utah and far
southwest Wyoming on Thursday. Although instability does not look
particularly noteworthy jet streak over eastern Utah increases
deep layer shear there and cannot rule a few organized storms.

.LONG TERM (After 06Z Friday)...After the weakening disturbance
exits to the northeast, the region looks to remain in a relatively
moist southwesterly flow Thursday night through Friday night ahead
of a larger trough over the Pacific Northwest. This will likely
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the
eastern half of Utah, with near seasonal temperatures.

An initial wave out ahead of the trough is still expected to slide
across northern Utah Saturday and Saturday night, though models
remain inconsistent about the strength of this shortwave. Similarly,
while models continue to push this mean trough into the Great Basin
on Sunday and Monday, details remain very low confidence due to the
wide range of solutions. In general, expect a cooling trend and
perhaps somewhat wetter conditions for the beginning of next week,
but we will have to wait a bit to get increased confidence in the
timing/strength/placement/etc. of this next storm system.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns remain minimal at the SLC
terminal through the TAF period. Surface winds should switch back to
the southeast around 03-04Z.


.FIRE WEATHER...An upper level ridge remains in place over the
Great Basin today with an upper level low over California Baja.
Beneath the ridge...light flow will continue through midweek
resulting in primarily terrain driven winds. A slow warming trend
will take place through mid week with high afternoon minimum
relative humidity readings and excellent overnight recovery.
Moisture will begin to spread north back into the district by mid
week bringing the threat of thunderstorms back to the area.





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