Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 041114
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
514 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY...THEN PUSH A FALL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY. A GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 06Z TUESDAY)...A DEEP UPPER TROF REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE PACNW STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROF OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.

MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER SERN UT OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NWD TODAY. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SEEPS INTO WRN
UT BUT THE MAJORITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE MTNS AND EAST BRINGING A
THREAT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THESE AREAS.

A LEADING SURFACE TROF IS CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS NWRN UT AND
THIS COULD ALSO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVE AND LIMITED MOISTURE CREEPS
WEST OF I-15 BRINGING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE
I-15 CORRIDOR MAINLY THIS EVE.

THE FLOW ALOFT IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT
FOR THE WRN VALLEYS ONCE THESE WINDS FULLY MIX DOWN THIS AFTN. THE
PATTERN STAYS STATIC INTO SAT MORNING THEN THE COLD FRONT SURGES
INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BAND OF CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT WITH COVERAGE MOST LIKELY REMAINING SCATTERED.

THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND MAX TEMPS SUN ACROSS
THE NORTH DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WHILE THE SOUTH COOLS LESS.
DRIER STABLE AIR STAYS IN PLACE MON ALTHO THE LATEST GFS IS
HINTING THE SOME MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO SERN UT THAT DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WILL WILL HAPPEN SO THERE IS NO MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AFTN/EVE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z TUESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TUESDAY...THE 00Z EC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE COOLER TEMPERATURE ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EC WITH THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS THE EC SEEMS TO
BE A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION.

GIVEN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM ROUGHLY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG...FALL-LIKE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE DISTRICT...PARTICULARLY THE
WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CROSSING MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECREASE.

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS
OF UTAH. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE DISTRICT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH 14Z OR SO AT THE
SLC TERMINAL AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY
     FOR UTZ478-492-495-497.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR UTZ003-005-015-016.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ003-005-015-016.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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