Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 170354
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
854 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...An increasingly moist southwest flow will persist over
the area tonight. A cold storm system will cross the region
Friday. High pressure will build in over the weekend with a
gradual warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The axis of the cold upstream trof is nearing the
west coast this evening with a mild and increasingly moist
southwest flow over the Great Basin. Rain has filled in across the
nrn CWA and is expected to spread south overnight staying over
the mtns and west. Snow levels are near 8500 feet in the north and
will be up near 10000 feet in the south later tonight.

The gusty winds have dropped off across the CWA and have already
cancelled the Wind Advisory for the SL valley, and will be
canceling the west central and swrn valleys shortly. Do expect
local gusty winds to persist overnight across much of the CWA as
the upper trof shifts inland and a few favored spots could still
gust into the 50s but do not expect this to be widespread. Temps
overnight will remain very mild.

The associated cold front moves into far nwrn UT by 12z Fri then
thru the Wasatch Front by 18z. The front is over srn UT by 00z
then moves out of the CWA by 03z Sat. A swath of heavier precip
will accompany the front with snow levels falling to the valley
floors within an hour or two once the front passes. This timing
could coincide with precip becoming showery however so any valley
accumulation will be light at best. The main winter weather impact
will be over mtn routes as well as across the mtn valleys and swrn
WY.

Altho the cold front intensifies as it moves thru central and into
srn UT, the band of precip narrows and duration will also
shorten. The band then weakens across srn UT and exits the CWA
by 03z.

Winds across srn and sern UT are forecast to become fairly strong
ahead of the front tomorrow and the going advisory is on track.
Post frontal winds will be locally strong over the nw deserts and
east of the Wasatch Plateau but widespread post frontal advisory
level winds are not expected.

Any lingering orographic snow showers should end quickly Fri eve
behind the upper trof axis as heights strongly rise.

Updated earlier to lower pops a bit south of SLC for the eve and
adjust winds. Will update again to drop the western UT wind
highlight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the SLC
terminal through the night. However, CIGS will occasionally dip
to 6000 ft or less in rain showers. Winds may be variable at times
tonight due to the showers, otherwise northwest winds are
expected to shift to the south between 05-06z and may become
gusty. A cold front will cross the terminal tomorrow morning, most
likely between 14Z and 16Z, bringing a wind shift to the
northwest and the possibility of MVFR conditions in more intense
rain.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MST Friday for UTZ013-020-021.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
     Friday for UTZ007>010.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Wilensky
AVIATION...Cheng

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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