Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 240353
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
953 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture pooled to the south of Utah will begin a
northward surge on Monday. Deep moisture will then remain in
place into Wednesday bringing a threat of heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The high has shifted east this eve and deep
moisture to our south has started to spread into UT. Convection
from earlier in the day has pretty much dissipated with just
lingering showers over about the southern 2/3 of the CWA. One area
of active tstms does persist at this time west of St George along
the NV border and this area could be the most active overnight.
The light showers could also persist across the remainder of the
south and west overnight.

The moisture continues to spread north overnight thru Mon night
but limited instability could keep storms more isolated and
terrain based. However those that do form will likely generate
heavy rain.

Models identify a short wave trof that lifts out of AZ tomorrow
night and north thru UT Tue morning bringing the deepest moisture
with it. It also warms the temps aloft so what may end up
happening will be larger areas of stratiform rain with only
isolated convection and heavy rain. There is a potential however
of warm rain processes generating large amounts of precip in
upslope areas that will be missed by our mtn top radars.

The ridge position and the vertical thermal profile change little
on Wed but a slow drying trend does begin as the ridge does bulge
wwd into srn CA and starts to cut off the moisture supply.

Updated forecasts earlier to lower pops across the nern CWA for
tonight but made few other changes. No additional updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...Winds at the KSLC terminal will remain southerly
through the night and into Monday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Wilensky

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