Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 281024
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
424 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN SPREAD
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL BRING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW NEAR RECORD LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOST
NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DECENT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THE MOISTURE INCREASE LOOKS
TOO SHALLOW COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE LEVELING OFF FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VACILLATE ON THE RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH UTAH.
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDS NORTH EACH DAY UNTIL SLIGHT
CHANCE...OR CHANCE POPS...ARE NEEDED STATEWIDE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN OCCURS SINCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPS OVER AZ AND UT. INSTEAD MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWEST INTO CA
AND NV AND THEN EVENTUALLY FILLS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION....SETTING UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH...THE
MOISTURE COULD RETURN NORTH MUCH MORE QUICKLY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...HAVE CONTINUED
IDEA OF SLOW NORTHWARD EXPANSION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT 13-15Z. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL
BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION NORTHWARD...REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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