Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 261023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
423 AM MDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with
a warming trend through the first part of the week. A storm
system moving up from the south is expected to bring moisture back
to the area by midweek.


.SHORT TERM (Through 12z Wednesday)...Mid level ridging building
into the Great Basin early this morning will expand eastward,
becoming centered across the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon.
This building ridge will allow for a warming trend through the
short term period, and with the airmass remaining quite dry will
result in increasingly large diurnal swings with warm days and
relatively cool nights particularly in outlying areas. An upper
low which is currently spinning over northwest Mexico will drift
northward over the next couple of days, however any associated
moisture is not expected to reach the UT/AZ border until late
Tuesday night at the earliest. As such have removed slight chance
pops from the southern mountains for Tuesday afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM (After 12z Wednesday)...Large scale evolution of the
pattern to begin the long term is relatively consistent model to
model in latest 00z runs. The closed low over the desert southwest
is forecast to shear northeast Wednesday in advance of upstream
amplification of the next pacific trough. Though within a shearing
environment, a net southerly large scale flow across the eastern
Great Basin still appears to be sufficient enough to draw another
round of sub-tropical moisture north across the area Wednesday into
Thursday. Did slow timing of this moisture advection and resultant
convective threat to match latest trends in globals, but overall the
big picture remains the same. Lack of large scale forcing at that
time should limit convective activity to isolated or widely
scattered with areal extent greatest over the mountains southern and
central Utah, but anticipate more details to fall out a bit more
closer in time.

The aforementioned trough will continue to amplify and carve
generally east-southeast into the western Great Basin thereafter
into next weekend. Not overly confident in any one solution
regarding details of short wave energy rotating around this trough,
and their impact locally, but foresee a net cooling trend coupled
with a continued chance of showers/storms, namely over the
north/east, through the late week period.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns remain minimal at the KSLC
terminal through the valid TAF period. Southeasterly drainage winds
currently in place are expected to shift to the northwest between 18-
19z per norm. VFR conditions will be maintained under clear skies.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure building across the Great Basin will
become centered over Utah by Tuesday. This will maintain dry
conditions areawide through Tuesday with a continued warming
trend. With the high building overhead, winds will remain
generally light and driven by diurnal slope flows. This high will
shift east Wednesday allowing moisture to spread back north into
the area.





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