Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 292156
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
356 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST...RESULTING IN A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AND DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN EXITING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGER OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH WITH SOME TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS IS
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
UTAH AS WELL AS NORTHEAST UTAH. EXPECT THE THREAT OF CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIES OFF WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BUT WITH
700 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE +12C TO +14C RANGE BY
SUNDAY...MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AT LEAST 10F ABOVE CLIMO BY
THAT TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT
EAST AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STAY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA...BUT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BRING
SOME COOLER AIR INTO PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR CLIMO FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. EC/GFS HAVE THE INITIAL WAVE FROM THIS LARGE SYSTEM
MOVE ACROSS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A BIT OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK TO NORTHERN UTAH. GUIDANCE THEN
INDICATES THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. LATEST ECMWF INDICATING THIS WOULD BE MORE OF A DIRECT
HIT WHILE THE LATEST GFS MOVES IT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. HAVE
RAISED POPS A BIT GIVEN A TREND OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 9000 FT AGL. OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 15000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT NNW WINDS WILL BECOME
SSE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO NNW AFTER
20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE PATTERN SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN. EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND A DRYING TREND ACROSS ALL
OF UTAH. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THIN EACH DAY AND BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE MOST PART.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLING AND MOISTENING CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH BY MID
WEEK BEHIND THE NEXT COOL FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AGAIN YET SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...RUTZ
FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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