Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 181643
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1043 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
ROUGHLY SALT LAKE CITY TO TOOELE TO DUGWAY. HAVE LIKELY ALREADY
REACHED DAYTIME MAXES FROM SALT LAKE NORTH SO LOWERED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES FOR THOSE AREAS THAT NOW RESIDE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. THE PARENT SHORT WAVE OF THIS FRONT IS SPINNING ALONG
THE US/CANADA BORDER SO IT REMAINS QUITE REMOVED...AND THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS AND WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW. STILL...WEAK
DYNAMIC FORCING HAS PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING. SREF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALLEYS OF 100-200
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SO AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD ONLY INCREASE. BEST PRECIP FOCUSED ALONG THE UT/ID BORDER.

THIS FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO ROUGHLY NEPHI BY LATE DAY BEFORE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SPC SREF INSTABILITY FORECASTS HAVE BACKED OFF ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND DYNAMIC INFLUENCE OF
THE CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOCAL DOES NOT LOOK TO MOVE INTO THIS
REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS DECENT SURFACE HEATING IS TAKING
PLACE...BUT REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS/DESERT.

NO OTHER UPDATES OR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
THOSE MENTIONED ABOVE.

LONG RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY. DETAILS IN GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERAL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SHOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT JUST MOVED THROUGH THE KSLC TERMINAL SO
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...AND WILL BECOME GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THESE COULD BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO THE
TERMINAL.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/YOUNG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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