Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 270355
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
REMAIN IN PLACE AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS EVENING. EMBEDDED IN THIS RIDGE...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY.
THIS GENERATED ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
UTAH. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS WANED NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS COINCIDENT WITH SAID SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN UTAH HAS CLEARED OUT AND BECOME SUBSIDENT
BEHIND THE WAVE.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE SLIGHTLY CLOCKWISE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOMORROW...WITH A TREND TOWARDS MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS UTAH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL UTAH TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH...PULLING
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN UTAH. SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE TOMORROW...BUT THE NORTH WILL ALSO START TO SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AREA. THE STORMS OVER THE NORTH WILL
LIKELY START OUT DRY TOMORROW WITH A GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL FROM
MICROBURST ACTIVITY.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND NOT JUST IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS WILL CULMINATE
WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THUS...EXPECT GREATEST ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL THEN SHIFT OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK...CUTTING OFF THE SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL TREND DRIER...ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO GENERATE AT LEAST DIURNAL AND
MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE
SLC TERMINAL WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED AFTER 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND THE
THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHWEST DESERTS WHILE
SCATTERED WETTER STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT MOST DRY STORM ACTIVITY TO STAY ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS FARTHER EAST.

ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES NORTH INTO THE DISTRICT ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WEAK BUT MOIST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH MONDAY...CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY NIGHT
AND NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

CHENG


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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