Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 211559

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
959 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather disturbance will move across the state
today. High pressure aloft building across the western states
will bring a warming and drying trend to the area through the
middle of the week.


.DISCUSSION...Morning observation and satellite analysis shows
fairly mild temperatures and mostly light winds across the
forecast area with a few isolated areas seeing some gusty
northerly winds across central and western Utah. A vort max
rotating through northwest Utah this morning can be seen on water
vapory imagery depicted very well and even at the surface the
cyclonic winds are noted. Areas of showers being enhanced over the
Great Salt Lake moving into the Wasatch Front have noted a few
lightning strikes as well.

With this disturbance expected to move south and east through the
state today, expecting showers and thunderstorm chances to persist
into the evening hours. Going forecast was in good shape and made
some minor tweaks to Sky and PoP to better represent current

Under the dry slot areas of clear skies this morning, would expect
these areas to see the best heating and thus better instability
generation through the day. Current instability is paired nicely
with the ongoing shower activity and expect this to push farther
south and east into central and southern Utah during the day. Can
not rule out gusty winds from thunderstorms and even the potential
for microburst winds, but will largely rely on enough heating to
generate instability.


.AVIATION...The weather disturbance currently positioned across
extreme northwest Utah will maintain a southeast track into
central Utah this afternoon. Ahead of this feature scattered
showers are expected at the terminal through early afternoon, with
brief periods of MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible with heavier
showers. Can not rule out a thunderstorm at the terminal through
19z, though the chance of this occurring will be less than 10%.
Wind speeds will generally be light with the direction determined
by the location of any showers. Winds will gain a more consistent
northwest direction after 19z.


.FIRE WEATHER...Previous discussion issued at 345 AM MDT Sunday.

Weak transport winds will limit clearing to the fair to good
categories across many valleys during the next several days.
Mixing also becomes limited across the western valleys Monday.

A disturbance dropping south from Idaho today will trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected
across the north mainly though mid afternoon, before developing
across portions of central and southern Utah late today, lingering
tonight. In addition to lightning, they carry the risk of
gusty/erratic winds associated with dry microbursts, and low
probabilities of a wetting rain.

The warming and drying will accelerate for the first half of the
work week as a ridge builds over the region. A cooler and more




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