Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 021025
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
425 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED NW-SE FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH HAS STARTED TO
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE AREA...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING SQUASHED TO
THE SOUTH. GOES ESTIMATES SHOW PWAT GENERALLY 0.9 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE REMAINING IN THE 1.0-1.3 INCH
RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THAT
AREA.

CONVECTION REMAINED ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL IN PLACE CURRENTLY.
EXPECT SOUTHERN UTAH TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE STILL RATHER HIGH.

THE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW WITH A
CONTINUED DRYING TREND EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE DECREASING
COVERAGE. OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START SHIFTING EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND BECOME
SITUATED OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD START MAKING A RETURN
TO THE AREA...BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO COLORADO. ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA...WILL
SEE A CORRESPONDING DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED FLATTEN SUNDAY DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BULGE BACK UP
SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A SLOW DRYING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD SHIFT
EVEN EARLIER AROUND 14-15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL
SLOWLY DRY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH STORMS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT OF
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN START TO COOL DOWN WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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