Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 271628
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1028 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTH ACROSS UTAH MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUING TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED AXIS NOW
BISECTING THE STATE FROM NW-SE. BENEATH THIS AXIS A WEAK WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COME MIDDAY. PWAT NOW
APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH OWING TO POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS THIS AFTERNOON. GOES DERIVED PWAT AND
MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS A RELATIVE DRY SLOT
THAT WAS OVER EASTERN AZ YESTERDAY HAS MOVED IN...THUS SHOULD SEE
MORE ISOLATED AIRMASS TYPE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THOSE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINS QUITE MOIST.

EARLIER UPDATE REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
UTAH FOR THIS MORNING...BUT RETAINED POPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. RAP13 INDICATES
A CONTINUED BY GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY INTERSTATE 80 THIS EVENING
BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
WASATCH FRONT. THE FAR NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY.

WITH RIDGE POSITION QUITE PRONOUNCED OVERHEAD AND RELATIVELY
LIMITED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS...THE WARMING TREND EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SHOULD MAKE ANOTHER
RUN AT TRIPLE DIGITS AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT COME LATE
AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED...

THE CENTRAL UTAH WAVE WILL MOSTLY SHEAR TONIGHT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW TRAJECTORIES SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...WITH PWAT FORECAST TO EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA.

STILL TRACKING A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAR SOCAL/BAJA.
THIS WAVE REMAINS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UT AND EASTERN NV TOMORROW BEFORE TRACKING
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DYNAMIC LIFT COUPLED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MOST ALL AREAS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PASSAGE
OF THIS WAVE WILL BOTH COOL AND MOSTLY SUPPRESS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER RIDGE POSITIONING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST ALLOWING A
SOMEWHAT MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER LOOKS PER NORM FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH DAILY AIRMASS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF
TEMPS AFTER THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH ANY CIGS WELL ABV 7000 FT. CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY COULD SEND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AIRFIELD AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AGAIN TODAY IN THE
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN UTAH. A DRIER AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF ABOUT I-80 AND ISOLATED DRY STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN MAINLY TOOELE AND SALT LAKE
COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT MONDAY
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND A GOOD
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WITH ANY STORMS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/WILENSKY


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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