Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 162308
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
508 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter weather through early next week, with warming
  temperatures and little to no precipitation.

- Next system looks to arrive middle to late next week, though
  details on any impacts are uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A Rex Block will dominate the weather through early next week,
keeping mainly dry and warming conditions across the area. Today,
temperatures for most locations will peak about 5 degrees above
normal for this time of year. The exceptions will be for those
locations that received the most snow earlier this week, namely the
Lander area and a good chunk of Sweetwater County. Those areas will
peak around or just below normal. Otherwise, a weak disturbance will
arrive within the northerly flow today. This will provide just
enough lift and moisture for some isolated showers across
northeastern portions of the area beginning this afternoon. The best
chance for precipitation actually reaching the ground will be in the
Bighorns, but even here any accumulation would be light.

Sunday will feature much of the same conditions, though a few
degrees cooler for Johnson and Natrona counties behind a weak cold
front that will clip the area. A few light showers will again be
possible (generally less than a 25% chance) across the Bighorns and
Winds, but otherwise dry conditions are expected again.

Temperatures will warm further on Monday and Tuesday as 700mb
temperatures reach 1 to 3C. This will make for some of the warmest
temperatures thus far this year, with highs peaking well above
normal for much of the area. The exception will again be for areas
with lingering fresh snow cover, though strong solar radiation
will help melt some of that through the weekend. Otherwise,
slightly elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the
Bighorn Basin and Johnson County as relative humidity drops to
the 15 to 25 percent range Monday and Tuesday. However, a lack
of a coinciding gustier wind should help to mitigate this
concern.

Ensemble guidance still favors the blocking pattern to begin
breaking down by midweek. As mentioned before, this may be a little
too quick given the strength of the pattern. Still, we`ll keep
the current forecast of precipitation chances beginning to
increase slightly Wednesday afternoon given the uncertainty.
However, most of the area should expect to remain dry and warm
through Wednesday. A more progressive, active pattern does
appear probable to take over Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR will prevail at all terminals through the next 24 hours. West
of the Divide terminals will only see SCT high clouds develop late
in the period. Meanwhile, east of the Divide terminals and KRKS
will see a mid-level deck at FL060 to FL080 associated with a
weak boundary push into the region from northeast to southwest
through the late afternoon, and especially overnight. A brief
period of flurries is possible overnight as the boundary moves
through, but not enough confidence at any terminals, so have
left VCSH for now. Of the terminals that have VCSH, KCPR and
KLND have the highest probability (30%) of occasional MVFR or
near MVFR conditions developing between 10Z and 14Z Sunday with
occasional snow flurries. Light winds will exist across all
terminals. KRKS will see a northeast wind with gusts up to 20kts
possible through the afternoon, diminishing overnight.
Northeast winds will increase at most east of the Divide
terminals around 18Z Sunday but gusts will remain generally less
than 20 kts.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Hensley


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