Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 050526
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1026 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MST)

QUICK HITTING COLD SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OUT WEST AND A CHANCE
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND SE OFF THE MTN
CHAINS AS MOISTURE COMBINES WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM AND SOME LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO ASSIST IN SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS.
SOME MTN FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER THE HYR MTNS OF THE WEST
FRIDAY IN WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN AS RIDGE REBUILDS. HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL HAS ENDED UP IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL
HIGH WIND EVENT JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. TODAY`S WARNING VERIFIED AS
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHWAY SOUTH OF CLARK
AND PLENTY OF GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. STILL SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR SERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM MUDDY GAP/JEFFREY
CITY TO ERN SWEETWATER. WILL HAVE THAT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

PERHAPS ONE OF THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THIS TIME-FRAME
IS THE CONTINUED INDICATION OF VERY STRONG WIND DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CODY FOOTHILLS. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS LOOK TO FORM FAIRLY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. THE CITY OF CODY PROPER DO NOT LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS...AS SEEMS TO FREQUENTLY BE THE CASE. NORTH
OF CODY AND SOUTH OF CODY LOOK TO BE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN RELATED WINDS PUSHING VERY STRONG WIND TO THE SURFACE. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO SEE HOW MODELS CONTINUE TO
HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT...WITH FURTHER REFINEMENT OF TIMING AND
INTENSITY ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. THOUGH THE PRESENCE
OF THE WAVE IS STILL FAVORED IN RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH SOME MODELS PEGGING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE OTHERS LEAVE IT FAIRLY DRY. THIS IS
BECAUSE OF VARIATION IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE. COMPARED TO
WHAT MODELS WERE DEMONSTRATING DURING THE 12Z RUNS ON WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVE TONED DOWN SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES. SOME AREAS WHICH WERE
UNDER HIGH SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO CONSEQUENTLY
NEED ADDITIONAL ATTENTION AS THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE BECOMES
BETTER REALIZED. FOR NOW...VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE...BUILDING HIGH RIDGE WILL DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END WITH CONFIDENCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME OF
HIGH PRESSURE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CHANGES TO INCLUDE WHERE
FOG FORMATION WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS

TERMINAL FORECASTS IN SW WY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOWER CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK SOUTH TO
KEMMERER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MFVR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES THE JACKSON AIRPORT WHERE
MVFR CIGS ARE TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NEARBY TETONS AT TIMES.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z FROM KBYG TO KCPR. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS AND AROUND CASPER MOUNTAIN. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDY AT KCPR AIRPORT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES...SNOW COVERING MOST
SURFACES....AND A NEW WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON TODAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS. MOST
AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING...EXCEPT FOR THE BASINS...SHOULD SEE FAIR
TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC


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