Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 310854
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
254 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

KEPT FOG IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN WY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH FELL IN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST WY WED. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN
WESTERN WY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY
AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO MORE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH LESS HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDINESS AROUND. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT EVEN BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE PARKED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE WILL SPIN A WEAK CLOSED OFF LOW OVER IDAHO AND THAT WILL
PROPAGATE EAST TO CENTRAL WY BY FRIDAY NIGHT ACDG TO THE GFS. THE H7
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER CO. SATURDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
MOISTURE STREAM ASCT WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL EASTERLY
WAVE...WHICH WILL THEN BE OVER NEVADA WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST FROM IT INTO WYOMING...BISECTS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN THE HEAT AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR TO A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH THAT ORIGINATE AS ELY WAVES UNDERNEATH
OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE LARGER OF THE
DISTURBANCES SOUTH OF US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES
THE MAIN DISTURBANCE/CIRCULATION ACROSS US LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. EITHER WAY THEY ALL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL
DISTURBANCES/CIRCULATIONS. THE FORECAST WEAK FLOW AND PW`S OVER AN
INCH IN MANY AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
MONDAY AND OR TUESDAY SIMILAR TO OUR EPISODE THIS WEEK. A DRIER NW
FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NORMALLY THIS COULD BE A
FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN BUT WITH OUT A SURFACE HIGH TO THE
N OR NE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MOIST ELY FLOW EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS TO
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW
WEDNESDAY YET SO WILL KEEP OUR ISOLD LOWER ELEVATION POPS FOR NOW.
MAINLY MOUNTAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15C MEANING UPPER 80S TO
SOME 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST WITH
65 TO NEAR 80 MOUNTAINS. COOLER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIAL...HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER. WARMING AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHWEST WY UNTIL 15Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL 06Z
FRIDAY. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT SEE STORMS OR SHOWERS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CENTRAL BASINS. ANOTHER SLUG OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL...AGAIN...BRING
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










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