


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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685 FXUS65 KRIW 021047 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 447 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures prevail across the state with widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. - An influx of moisture will create chances for heavy downpours and localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas today and especially Thursday. - The 4th of July is not looking like a complete washout with a period of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening with drier conditions possible after sunset. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 July started off hot and unsettled across the Cowboy State. Temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s east of the Divide and mid to upper 80s west of the Divide. Showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and evening with some locations seeing brief downpours along with gusty outflow winds. Wednesday will see much of the same with warm above normal temperatures and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The one difference will be the start of an influx of well above normal moisture. An upper level low over the western CONUS will begin to funnel moisture into the region. Models show PWAT values of 0.60 to 0.90 inches which would be nearly 100 to 150% above normal. Convection is expected to be more widespread as a result of this moisture starting to move in. However, there will still be some dryness lingering through the atmosphere. This dryness and lack of dynamics will limit stronger thunderstorm development. The main concern will be strong gusty outflow winds as a result of dewpoint depressions ranging between 40 to 60 degrees. Portions of northern and central WY look to have the best chances to see these gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms linger into the evening before gradually dissipating by the early morning hours on Thursday. Thursday will see the warm and unsettled pattern continue. However, moisture is expected to increase further with PWATs nearing 1 inch translating to almost 200% above normal values. This will increase the chances for periods of heavy downpours as showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the state during the afternoon and evening. Storms will have potential to produce localized flash flooding as a result of this increased influx of moisture. The other concern that develops on Thursday will be increased chances for strong thunderstorms. These increased chances are due to higher CAPE values along with more favorable dynamics as a result of a shortwave trough moving across the region. While still a few days out the best chances for strong thunderstorms looks to be over central and eastern WY. Looking towards Friday the 4th of July, unsettled weather looks to be possible. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding how widespread the showers and thunderstorms may be. Temperatures will cool slightly compared to earlier in the week, returning to near seasonable values. Above normal PWATs linger which would create another day with chances for heavy downpours. Models show another shortwave move across the region with the track differing slightly between models. Some show a more northerly track which would bring favorable chances for showers and thunderstorms to northern WY. Other models keep it farther south leading to move widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The good news is that convection is expected to dissipate by sunset leading to drier conditions by the time it gets dark. Overall, there does look to be a period of unsettled weather for Friday afternoon and evening but to where the best chances will be is still to be determined. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 445 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions for the entirety of the period for all TAF sites. Light winds will increase this afternoon after 18Z, with RIW/PNA to see the higher gusts up to 18-25kts. Afternoon thunderstorm chances at all TAF sites with widely scattered activity after 19-22Z. These will be heat driven with strong outflow winds expected up to 35kts with the strongest storms. These will last through around 03-04Z diminishing after sunset due to radiational cooling. This will also see diminished winds to less than 8-10kts into the overnight hours into Friday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Lowe