Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 042200
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

QUICK HITTING COLD SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OUT WEST AND A CHANCE
EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND SE OFF THE MTN
CHAINS AS MOISTURE COMBINES WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM AND SOME LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO ASSIST IN SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS.
SOME MTN FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER THE HYR MTNS OF THE WEST
FRIDAY IN WEAK UPGLIDE PATTERN AS RIDGE REBUILDS. HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL HAS ENDED UP IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING UP TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL
HIGH WIND EVENT JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. TODAY`S WARNING VERIFIED AS
EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHWAY SOUTH OF CLARK
AND PLENTY OF GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. STILL SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR SERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM MUDDY GAP/JEFFREY
CITY TO ERN SWEETWATER. WILL HAVE THAT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

PERHAPS ONE OF THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THIS TIME-FRAME
IS THE CONTINUED INDICATION OF VERY STRONG WIND DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CODY FOOTHILLS. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS LOOK TO FORM FAIRLY
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. THE CITY OF CODY PROPER DO NOT LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS...AS SEEMS TO FREQUENTLY BE THE CASE. NORTH
OF CODY AND SOUTH OF CODY LOOK TO BE FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN RELATED WINDS PUSHING VERY STRONG WIND TO THE SURFACE. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO SEE HOW MODELS CONTINUE TO
HANDLE THIS DEVELOPMENT...WITH FURTHER REFINEMENT OF TIMING AND
INTENSITY ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. THOUGH THE PRESENCE
OF THE WAVE IS STILL FAVORED IN RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH SOME MODELS PEGGING THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE OTHERS LEAVE IT FAIRLY DRY. THIS IS
BECAUSE OF VARIATION IN THE INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE. COMPARED TO
WHAT MODELS WERE DEMONSTRATING DURING THE 12Z RUNS ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS
HAVE TONED DOWN SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES. SOME AREAS WHICH WERE
UNDER HIGH SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS CHANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO
CONSEQUENTLY NEED ADDITIONAL ATTENTION AS THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE BECOMES BETTER REALIZED. FOR NOW...VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE...BUILDING HIGH RIDGE WILL DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END WITH CONFIDENCE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DURING THIS TIME OF
HIGH PRESSURE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CHANGES TO INCLUDE WHERE
FOG FORMATION WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. FROM KJAC TO
KAFO...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN THE FAR
WEST INCLUDING KJAC. MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCD AT TIMES.

IN SW WY SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. TERMINAL SITES IN SW WY WILL BE IMPACTED AT
TIMES. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE DURING THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
THROUGH 09Z FRI CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATION.
TERMINAL SITES MAY SEE A SNOW SHOWER WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
ALL AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDS FRIDAY WITH ONLY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG EARLY FRIDAY IN THE BASINS AND W-NW FACING FOOTHILL LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH SEASONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES...SNOW COVERING MOST
SURFACES....AND A NEW WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES ON TODAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS. MOST
AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING...EXCEPT FOR THE BASINS...SHOULD SEE FAIR
TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC


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