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000
FXUS65 KRIW 030915
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
215 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AREAS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL WERE EXPERIENCED LAST EVENING...WITH
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FELT WITH MULTIPLE ROADWAY CLOSURES.
THE RADAR HAS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS. A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE STILL DEPICTED ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED...WITH BLOWING SNOW NOTED AT SOME AIRPORT TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING.

SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
ONLY SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
POSITIVE VALUES.

AS THE OFFENDING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS FLOW...THOUGH MODELS DO ATTEMPT TO
INCLUDE PERIODIC BITS OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING EARLY
THURSDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPING...SO
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESCORT THE AREA THROUGH THE BRIEF
REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WARMING TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAS FLIPPED SOLUTIONS WITH THE GFS MORE
BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE AREA DRY. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND POPS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND INCREASED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO CHANCE. HOWEVER...THE IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE MINIMAL EVEN IF THE FORECAST AREA TAKES A DIRECT HIT.

A RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BEFORE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE...WEAKENING BUT PUSHING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY. THUS
WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
WIDESPREAD IFR -SN...AREAS OF LIFR SN/BLSN WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z
VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KDUB-KBYG LINE WHILE MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR
-SN WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THIS LINE.  MTNS WILL REMAIN OBSCURE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.  GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z WITH MAINLY THIN STRATUS WITH
AREAS OF MVFR -SN ACROSS MOST AREAS AFTER 20Z.  CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TUESDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AREAS OF P6SM
-SN...PREVAILING AFTER 03Z WED.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH 14Z TUE.  DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NW AFTER 14Z WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM KJAC-KBPI-KPNA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.  MVFR...OCNL
IFR -SN WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY VCNTY AND E OF KRKS...UNTIL AROUND 00Z WED
WITH THE STRATUS LAYER LIFTING AND THINNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
MAINLY VFR THIN STRATUS WITH P6SM -SN WILL LINGER AFTER 06Z ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WHEN ONLY
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES EXPECTED TO SEE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO. A DRY NORTH FLOW WILL BE FOUND WITH THE
EXIT OF THIS WINTRY SYSTEM...WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED UNDER THIS FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
WYZ018>020-022-030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
WYZ002>011-014>017-028-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM