Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 261914
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
114 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

Isolated convection formed early again today in SW Sweetwater County
with our disturbance down there with some late morning lightning and
a shower passing near/over the Clay Basin Fire area. Overall a few
more cumulus are forming over and near the mountains today with
overall higher dew points. So more isolated coverage around vs
yesterday looks to be shaping up. Also, we have a shortwave moving
ewd across Central Idaho that will move across the north half
tonight with a decent shot of at least isolated convection through
the night. More likely in the mountains. The frontal boundary that
has pushed s and sw into our central zones may make a push wwd to
near the Lava Mtn fire tonight with a more moist se flow. The big
question for tomorrow will be will this front hold near the divide
Wednesday afternoon as the NAM shows or will it mix out and retreat
to Johnson and Natrona Counties as the GFS shows. Most confident for
some stronger storms in the ern zones and added in some hail wording
there but did add in isold evening storms across Fremont County. The
developing wnw flow has numerous shortwaves and with this front
getting a better push Wednesday night, we have have an even better
chance of storms along and east of the divide on Thursday. The sw
zones look dry, hot and breezy at times Wednesday and Thursday.
Little change on Friday.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Tuesday

Friday evening will feature lingering higher capes in our eastern
zones along with decent lifted indices with the last in a series of
reinforcing surface boundaries from the northeast associated with
the last of a series of ripples in the west northwest flow. The best
chance of Friday evening thunderstorms will be over the Big Horn
Mountains as well as over the lower elevations of Johnson County.

Saturday looks to be dry all around without any upper level or
surface features to provide any lift. A return to the hot
temperatures that we experienced Monday will make a come back on
Saturday with temperatures pushing the century mark once again by
Saturday and again on Sunday.

By Sunday, the high over the southwest United States will shift east
back toward Texas allowing our steering flow to back from the west
northwest to more of a southwest flow, opening the door for monsoon
moisture to works its way in from the southwest. A closed low
pressure center will be tracking east across southern Canada which
will eject a surface front toward Wyoming that will bisect the
monsoon moisture for another shot of isolated to widely
thunderstorms anywhere in the CWA Sunday and Monday. With hot
temperatures expected again Sunday, any storms that form Sunday
should pack quite a bit of wind. Then the next closed low coming on
shore Tuesday will continue drawing the monsoon moisture feed from
the southwest for another round of late day t storms Tuesday. It
appears that northern Wyoming has the best shot of any thunderstorms
pulling off the higher terrain as the steering flow will be
strongest there early next week. Temperatures will cool off just a
couple of degrees Monday and Tuesday after another scorcher Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

All terminals will be VFR through 00Z/Thu. There will be some
localized MVFR visibilities in the vicinity of two large wildfires
over the west-central part of the state. Active burning this
afternoon is likely to occasionally obscure mountain tops through at
least mid-evening Tuesday. Early convection over southwest Wyoming
will remain south of KRKS, while convection over the Absaroka Range
may impact KCOD in westerly flow aloft. There will be enough mid-
level moisture to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, with development over the mountains first. Large
temperature/dew point spreads will prevent any appreciable rain from
reaching the ground. Main hazard, therefore, will be gusty outflow
wind of 35-45kts. KLND and KRIW would be most susceptible to early
evening outflow wind. A weak disturbance will cross the state
this evening and overnight with lingering convection possible over
the north and central areas east of the Divide. KCOD, KWRL, and
KCPR would be the likeliest candidates to see VCSH and outflow
wind during the nighttime hours. Expect overnight convection to
diminish by 12Z/Wed. Weak frontal boundary will provide northerly
surface wind around 10kts through the evening hours across areas
east of the Continental Divide. Gusty west- southwest wind over
southwest Wyoming will decrease by 02Z/Wed. Expectation is for
gusty west- northwest wind 13-25kts to pick-up around 20Z/Wed at
KBPI, KPNA, and KRKS, with lesser speeds anticipated at KJAC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather conditions will remain quite elevated into the evening
hours with very warm temperatures, breezy conditions and rh`s under
15 percent at times. Isolated gusty showers or thunderstorms will be
possible about anywhere into the evening but isolated storms are
possible through the night in the northern zones. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will will occur Wednesday
through Friday along and east of the divide while the west remains
dry, very warm, breezy at times with low rh`s. Higher rh`s will be
noted east of the divide.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skrbac
LONG TERM...Lipson
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...Skrbac


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