Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 261935
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
135 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT LEAVING ALL BUT THE NE
CORNER SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY. A FEW FLURRIES WERE NOTED
OVER THE HIGHER NRN MTNS THIS MORNING BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY TO WINDY
NW WIND AREAS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTION AND MODEST
GAP FLOW POTENTIAL SO BEEFED UP THE WINDS IN THE FAVORED AREAS
TONIGHT BUT DOESN`T LOOK MORE THAN WINDY IN THE NORMAL AREAS. SOME
BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY IN THE W-NW FAVORED FLOW AREAS BUT LESS THAN
TODAY. OTHERWISE...JUST WARMER...DRIER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
OVERALL LESS WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY AND MILD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE
DEFINING FEATURE OF THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FIRST
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE PACIFIC AT 145W WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AS A DRY WINDY TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY AS THE LAST TROUGH THAT RESEMBLED THIS
ONE FIRST APPEARED IN THE MODELS AS IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WHERE THE FUELS ARE ALREADY CRITICAL BIT
WOUND UP APPROACHING 10 PERCENT WHEN THE DAY OF CONCERNED ACTUALLY
ARRIVED ONE WEEK PRIOR TO THIS EVENT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE WITHIN CRITERIA FROM RKS TO CPR AND EVEN
AT RIW ON SATURDAY. AS FAR AS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS
CONCERNED...ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OF A ROUGE T SHOWER COULD OCCUR
OVER THE NW MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MEAGER MOISTURE AND
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. THEN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH THE
NEXT WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL
ARRIVE TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF MORE DRY WINDY WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE
NW MTNS COULD AGAIN SEE ISOLD SHOWERS FROM NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
AND SUFFICIENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THEN THURSDAY IS THE
DAY THAT THE GFS AND THE EURO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS WY ALONG WITH A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER OF WY
ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WY. THE EURO
SHOWS NOTHING...JUST A STRAIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. KEPT POPS AS IS
FOR NOW. DID NOT WANT TO RAISE THU POPS BECAUSE OF REMAINING MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AND NONE OF OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE INCREASED THEIR POPS
EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN
THE UPPER GREEN...RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY.
THE CODY FOOTHILLS INCLUDING THE KCOD TERMINAL MAY SEE SOME STRONG
WEST WIND AT TIMES TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT
8-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WITH MIN RH`S EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...LOWERING INTO THE 20S WITH LOCAL MIN
RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS. THE NORTHWEST WILL BE MORE MOIST WITH MIN
RH`S IN THE 30S AND 40S. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPE OF MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY TO BRIEF STRONG WEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FROM KBPI AND KPNA TO
KRKS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY W-NW WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING SOME. MORE WIND WILL RETURN FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

A MORE ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...MIN RH`S IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND INCREASING WEST WIND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS





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