Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 190525
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1125 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.UPDATE...

Allowed the red flag warning in effect for portions of Fremont and
Natrona Counties to expire at 8 pm. RH is increasing in wake of
the frontal boundary/monsoonal moisture lifting northward across
the area. The strong winds are also gradually weakening late this
evening.

Added the lower elevations of Fremont and Natrona Counties /fire
weather zones 280 and 283/ into a fire weather watch that was
already in effect for Wednesday afternoon and evening for the
western mountains. Winds look to be marginal east of the Divide,
but enough afternoon mixing should result in winds around red flag
criteria.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight THROUGH Tuesday

Very dry and windy conditions with hot temperatures and critically
dry fuels will continue through 8 pm mdt this evening over
fremont and natrona counties.  Rather dry southwest flow will be
over the west tonight and tuesday. very isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the mountains and far
south in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
continue to warm.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night THROUGH Monday

Rather dry southwest flow will remain over the area Tuesday night.
very isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly
over the mountains and far south in the afternoon and evening
hours. Temperatures will continue to warm becoming quite hot with
some parts of the north hitting 100 wednesday afternoon.  the
chance of precipitation decreases to the far south as the moisture
in the southwest flow continues to decrease and the monsoon
remains to the south over Utah and Colorado.

AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

The main aviation concerns:

1. Very isolated high based afternoon and evening convection mainly
on the lee side of mountain ranges east of the Divide, as well as
between KRKS-KCPR. Gusty/Dry microburst winds will be the main
hazard. Have elected to have VCTS at KRKS/KCPR terminals, but could
have easily left it out as coverage will be isolated at best.

2. Smoke from ongoing wildfires across western Wyoming will cause
MVFR restrictions at times especially on routes between KJAC-KRIW
and KJAC-KBPI/KPNA. KJAC terminal could see MVFR restrictions from
smoke this morning, and will have 6SM FU in KJAC TAF for now.

FIRE WEATHER...

..FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 280...283...414...415 AND 416...

Very dry and windy conditions with hot temperatures and critically
dry fuels will continue through 8 pm mdt this evening over
fremont and natrona counties. Elevated fire weather conditions
will become more critical on wednesday. Rather dry southwest flow
will be over the west tonight and tuesday. very isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the mountains and
far south in the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday will
become windier with increased drying. strong gusty winds are
expected to combine with very low relative humidity.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for WYZ280-283-414>416.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C. Baker
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker


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