Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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629 FXUS65 KRIW 121903 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 103 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern sets up thanks to weak ridging and northwest flow, but temperatures remain above normal through Tuesday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the next several days. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across areas east of the Divide Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. - Ridging redevelops for the later half of the week, decreasing shower and thunderstorm chances and allowing temps to rise back to above normal values through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 101 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 A generally unsettled weather pattern begins to set up today, but we really won`t start to see the impacts of the unsettled pattern until tomorrow. That leaves today to be a relatively quiet day. Light winds exist across the CWA, with the exception of the northwest favored locations (mainly the Green River Basin and northeast Johnson County). Even across those locations, wind gusts will still generally remain less than 20 to 25 mph through the afternoon. Winds will be a tad stronger tomorrow afternoon, but only by 5 to 10 mph. As of noon, some terrain enhanced showers have developed along the Bighorn Mountains. These will continue through the afternoon. Some locations along the Bighorns could see up to 0.1" of rainfall out of these showers, with less than 10% chance of seeing more than 0.25". A few very isolated showers will also develop along the Absarokas and Owl Creeks, but these will be few and far between and dissolve just as quickly as they developed. Dewpoint depressions across lower elevations are 30 to 35 degrees this afternoon, so as showers slide off the mountains, they will quickly dry and dissolve. Hi-res models, such as the HRRR, hint at some outflows as a result of the dissolving showers across the Bighorn Basin and across Natrona and Johnson Counties. If outflows do develop, they are not expected to be more than 30 to 35 mph or to sustain themselves for any significant distance from the dissolving storm. Shower activity will end around sunset. Showers and thunderstorms will become more prevalent tomorrow afternoon, as well as Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Passing shortwaves in prevailing unsettled northwest flow will enhance instability, particularly across northern portions of the CWA. SPC continues with only a general thunder outlook for both Monday and Tuesday and CAPE will be weak (<500J/kg). Dewpoint depressions also will continue to be in the 30 to 40 degree range, so getting long- lived thunderstorms will be very difficult. Showers and weak thunderstorms are certainly possible though. Most northern areas have a 30 to 40% chance of rain Monday afternoon through the evening. Another, stronger shortwave will pass through on Tuesday and Wednesday. More showers and thunderstorms are expected, again, mainly focused across the north, especially east of the Divide. Details are lacking due to the inherently convective and chaotic nature of the showers and thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor and as we get more high-res model input over the next days, we will be able to narrow down timing and favored locations a bit better. At this time though, strong long-lived thunderstorms are not looking likely. After the passage of the shortwave Wednesday, which will cool temps back to near seasonal normals, Thursday will see temperatures will start to climb back above normal. Models are progging zonal flow through the weekend, but as of the latest runs, are suggesting the flow will be mostly dry. That is not to say that we won`t see afternoon showers and thunderstorms through next weekend, as confidence remains low in the pattern beyond Wednesday`s shortwave. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1029 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the entirety of the period. Light winds for most with some breezy gusts up to 18kts at PNA, BPI, and RKS after 19Z through sunset around 03Z during peak heating. Otherwise, a few to scattered upper level clouds with any rain shower/thunderstorm activity north and northeast of CPR. No other weather elements are expected at this time. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.&& .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hensley AVIATION...Lowe