Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 182041
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
241 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

UPR LVL PATTERN SHOWING RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING...WITH A WEAK UPR
WAVE DOING THE FLATTENING WHILE MOVING THRU THE RIDGE OVR WYO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOWING UP
IN PARK COUNTY. THE SFC SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN
FA...WITH A WEAK TROF MOVING EWD WITH THE UPR WAVE. SFC WINDS
REMAIN LOW UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WITHOUT MUCH SFC GRAD OR SUPPORT
FROM ABOVE...REMAINING SO THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT UPR WAVE IS ONLY GENERATING SOME MID/UPR CLOUDINESS AND
THAT`S ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE...H7 WARMING WILL ALLOW TEMPS AT THE
SFC TO RISE SOME 5+ DEG OVER THOSE OF FRIDAY...WITH SIMILAR HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

LONG WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS OFF THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THIS PLACES A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING ENDS UP WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.  MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SKIRT TO
THE NORTH OF WYOMING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY
MILD.  ONE OF THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LOOKS TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND COOLS TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN
FORECAST DRIES OUT AGAIN WITH WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY.  MAIN SPREAD
IN THE EXTENDED MODELS OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...MONTANA
AND SOUTHERN CANADA IN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WHERE DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL PRODUCE SCT/FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...BECOMING
CLEAR SKIES AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WIND AT 10KTS OR LESS WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST
TERMINALS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER IS LOW...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LOW WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S OR EVEN UPPER TEENS AT
TIMES...WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...HELPING TO AVOID
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN





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