National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KRIW 270505
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1105 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WYOMING...WITH WIND WEAKENING AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAY GENERATE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OTHERWISE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
ON SUNDAY...WITH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SEEING TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...AND RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THIS
RIDGE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ACTUALLY POINT TO
UPWARD FORCING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BEGINNING OVER THE FAR
WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
STILL LOOKS MORE LIKE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MANY OF THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED
STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND.

THEN MODELS EVEN MORE GENEROUS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED OR MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. COULD ALSO BE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE TO SET OFF STORMS...ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

RIDGE AXIS THEN REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. POSSIBLY A FEW
MORE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE VERY WARM TO END THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOME
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH A
MAINLY LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW WITH WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. MANY AREAS
WILL SEE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE LOW TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING CRITICAL
FIRE BEHAVIOR MUTED. THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
ALSO LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THREATS WITH ACTIVITY COULD
BE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM