Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 160403
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1003 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter weather through early next week, with warming
  temperatures and little to no precipitation.

- Next system looks to arrive in the middle of next week,
  though details on any impacts are uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

After an active few days of spring snow, quieter weather is in store
for the area into next week. A developing Rex Block will keep
precipitation well to our south for the most part, while also
bringing temperatures to well above normal. Today will be more of a
transition day, with highs peaking around normal for locations that
got fresh snow and around 5 degrees above normal for the Bighorn
Basin and most of Johnson County.

Temperatures will warm further on Saturday, with mainly clear skies
and no precipitation. The exception may be across the mountains into
the evening as a weak disturbance arrives. The best chances will be
across the Bighorns, but even here any accumulation would be light.
A weak front will try to push in from the northeast on Sunday. Other
than high temperatures cooling by a couple of degrees across Johnson
and Natrona counties, as well as low shower chances over the
mountains, little impacts are expected with this.

Heights rise again on Monday which will keep the area dry through
Tuesday. Much of the area will see the warmest temperatures of the
year thus far as 700mb temperatures reach 1 to 3C. Accordingly,
highs will generally peak 10 to near 20 degrees above normal. One
exception to this trend may be across Sweetwater County; guidance is
favoring temperatures remaining around normal there, likely due to
the fresh 8+ inches of snow that fell. The cooler temperatures may
be a bit overdone there, however, as much of this snow will melt
through the weekend given the generally mild temperatures and ample
March solar radiation. Also to note for Monday and Tuesday is the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions across lower
elevations of the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County as relative
humidity falls to the 15-25 percent range. However, a lack of a
coinciding gustier wind may help to mitigate this concern.

Ensemble guidance favors the blocking pattern to begin breaking down
by midweek. Precipitation chances will likely increase in the
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday timeframe. While details are
uncertain, a more progressive, active pattern appears probable to
take over through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

High clouds will increase southward over areas east of the
Divide to start the TAF period. Any clouds over far southern WY
are expected to stay south of KRKS. Winds will generally stay
light (< 11 kt) for most terminals through the forecast. KRKS
will be the exception, where gusts around 25 kt will return
Saturday afternoon. These winds will decrease by 00Z, with
sustained winds around 12kt continue through the night. Models
continue to depict shower chances over areas east of the Divide
Saturday night, despite the drier air in place. Most of these
showers will occur over the central mountains, but could impact
KCOD and KCPR in the form of virga showers.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...LaVoie


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