Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 242008
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
208 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry cool northwest flow aloft will gradually warm and pick up some
Pacific moisture with time as a large high pressure ridge over the
great basin moves north into the region.  Monday will warm into the
upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower elevations with some limited showers
and thunderstorms developing in the northern mountains.  Tuesday will
see more moisture with increasing showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the northern and western mountains. Winds will become breezy
to windy Monday and Tuesday with west to southwest winds becoming
gusty in the afternoons.  The strongest winds are expected over and
near the east slopes of the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The long wave ridge currently along the Pacific Coast will deamplify
as a shortwave trough travels east across the Western United States
and  the long wave trough currently over the midwest next
week. The shortwave trough will come through in several pieces over
the course of next week as it travels east across the Northern
Rockies. The Euro keeps the flow the least amplified with the GFS
the most amplified and the Canadian somewhere in the middle but the
timing of the models are more or less the same. The lead shortwave
will be exiting Wyoming Tuesday evening for lingering convection
across the northern tier of Wyoming. Then another round of
convection is expected Wednesday as the next piece of energy tracks
across the region. The best instability Wednesday should be in
Western Wyoming as the axis of this feature tracks across the area
late in the day. Wednesday will see h7 temps as high as 13.5C
Wednesday and will decrease to 3.5C in Northern Wyoming by Thursday
when the main axis of the shortwave trough tracks on through.
Thursday will see the apex of moisture covering northern and central
Wyoming asct with next weeks troughiness. In fact, there is a hint
of a weak mid level circulation tracking east across Northern
Wyoming Thursday. Thursday will see the greatest coverage of showers
and thunderstorms across northern and central Wyoming of the week.
Then on Friday, troughiness lingers over the region with the final
ripple in the flow riding southeast along the backside of the main
shortwave trough Saturday. Expect another round of mostly late day
convection Friday before convection tapes off Saturday as the ridge
to the west reestablishes itself to the west. High temperatures will
slowly decrease through the 70s east of the divide Wednesday behind
the asct cold front, and then approach 80 by Saturday with high
temps in the west in the 70s Wednesday, 60s Thursday and Friday, and
then the 70s Saturday. Increased clouds and showers should make
Thursday the coolest day of the week overall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through 12Z/Sun (Sunday
morning). SKC to localized SCT CIGs 070-090 ft mainly east of the
divide. No precipitation expected through the period. Winds
relatively light and variable to north to northwest with only an
occasional afternoon gust to 15 kts or so with the atmosphere fully
mixed out for the rest of this afternoon. LLWS to 30 kts possible
across southern Wyoming after 04Z Sunday (Saturday evening). VFR
conditions expected Sunday with sct shallow cumulus development with
cloud bases around 9k west of the divide, 110k east, and 7k north.
Clear skies south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry cool northwest flow aloft will gradually warm and pick up some
Pacific moisture with time as a large high pressure ridge over the
great basin moves north into the region.  Monday will warm into the
upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower elevations with some limited showers
and thunderstorms developing in the northern mountains.  Tuesday will
see more moisture with increasing showers and thunderstorms mainly
over the northern and western mountains. Winds will become breezy
to windy Monday and Tuesday with west to southwest winds becoming
gusty in the afternoons.  The strongest winds are expected over and
near the east slopes of the mountains.  The lower air mass will
be unstable enough with sufficient wind for very good to excellent
smoke dispersal from late morning to mid evening each day.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Lipson
AVIATION...Lipson
FIRE WEATHER...Baker



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