Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 122111
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
311 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WYOMING OVERNIGHT...BUT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT.
OVERALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN ITS DEVELOPMENT BECAUSE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WAVE...BUT WITH MELTING TODAY FROM
LINGERING SNOWFALL...DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.  BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS AND
SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH CONTINUED WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.  LOCAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE ENCOUNTERED.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF WYOMING WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  ANOTHER DAY OF LOCAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH BRINGING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
BUT THE WARMING MAY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AMY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH.  THE CLOUD COVER WILL
IMPEDE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT WARMING.
FRIDAY A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN WYOMING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVE EAST ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.  AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH COOLING
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE FAR WEST AND NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SNOW MELT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD DIFFUSE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH MAY KEEP
FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING...SO ONLY VCFG WAS INCLUDED WITH
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. KCOD IS THE PRIMARY TERMINAL WHICH MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG...ALONG WITH KBYG. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TERMINALS OF KBPI...KPNA... AND KRKS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK WAVE OF WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
OVERNIGHT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HUMIDITY WORKING TO DECREASE AS WELL. ALL ELEMENTS
WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...LEAVING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MINIMAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




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