Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 252206
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
506 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016


...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TUESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A SMALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE CLOSER
TO THE BOUNDARY AND NORTH OF THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
  HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR INTERSTATE 35 BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NEAR
THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ARE ALSO INCREASING FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE DETAILS CONCERNING EXACTLY WHERE STORMS
DEVELOP AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE REMAIN IN QUESTION...FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL HAVE A LIMITED TO ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED TO ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
FIRST RESPONDERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD READY
SEVERE WEATHER PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY FLOODING SET TO
BEGIN TOMORROW.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$



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