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000
FLUS44 KTSA 200008
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
705 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY THIS EVENING AND MORE TO COME
MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
                                THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM THE TULSA
AREA SOUTH AND WESTWARD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OKEMAH
TO MUSKOGEE TO MIAMI OKLAHOMA LINE.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EVENING. THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW AND
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
THAT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES...BASEBALL
SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
THE STORM MODE MAY TRANSITION TOWARD A LARGER STORM COMPLEX OR LINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUGGESTING A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN VERY LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION UNFOLDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IF AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS DOES FORM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
EXCEED 1 INCH IN SPOTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. AS A
RESULT...A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS IN THIS AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE REGION...AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRESENT FROM
THE STORMS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...HIGH INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...EXTREMELY
LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EVOLVES ON MONDAY. MOST LIKELY THE HIGHER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER BY
THIS TIME HOWEVER...SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT BEST.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. FIRST RESPONDERS AND DAMAGE RESPONSE WILL NEED TO BE IN
CLOSE COORDINATION WITH THE ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

LACY