776
FXUS64 KLUB 111147
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
647 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Our wet and unsettled pattern will draw to a close later today as a
slow-moving upper low bids farewell to the region. Water vapor
imagery and regional radars at 3 AM showed this low`s circulation
near Dimmitt with a primary axis of ascent to its E-SE where
numerous storms were underway. This lift corresponds with a zone of
PVA which will serve to tug the low over the Rolling Plains later
this morning and finally out of our CWA by this afternoon. Despite
the low`s departure and overall downturn in stronger ascent,
boundary layer heating this afternoon with the loss of morning
stratus will fuel modest CAPE sufficient for at least spotty showers
and some storms as far west as the eastern South Plains. NBM remains
dry west of the low which doesn`t fit this setup, so isolated storms
were added through the afternoon. Storms should drop off our scope
this evening with the loss of heating all the while heights slowly
rise overnight in NW flow. Highs today were trimmed in those areas
that saw heavy rainfall of 2-4" in recent days, but otherwise NBM`s
temps look good through tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Much of the long term forecast will be dominated by an upper high.
The upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners tomorrow
before being kicked eastward by an upper low Thursday, with the
upper low being centered over the FA Thursday into Friday. Despite
having the upper high overhead, temps should generally stay below
the century mark thanks to abundant surface moisture. The upper high
will also suppress most organized convection, but pop-up
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through
the week if any weakness moves around the upper high. This is
typical during the summer, especially when moisture is readily
available, and it is very difficult for models (especially global
models) to pick up this type of convection. Chances are low enough,
however, to keep PoPs below mention and be evaluated on a day by day
basis. The upper low is progged to transition to an open wave as it
moves into Colorado late Friday and will continue kicking the upper
high eastward towards the northern GOMEX coast. The upper shortwave
trough is also progged to pass far enough north of the FA to keep
the us dry and convection to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

MVFR CIGs at PVW and LBB with sporadic IFR will give way to VFR by
midday. Could see ISO SHRA or TS develop from PVW-LBB this
afternoon, but this looks too spotty for mention. Light rain at
CDS will depart by late morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93