228
FXUS64 KAMA 210502
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1202 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The ridge in the jet stream trough continues over our area
through the front half of short term period. A surface low exits
our northern zones this afternoon, and another low is expected to
form in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere by tomorrow. This
low pressure system develops ahead of a trough in the west, and
the next upper level pattern change will unfold upon our area by
Wednesday.

Above average temperatures across the CWA continue to be the main
message today. New 12Z NBM values were adjusted slightly to line
up better with surface observations, 12Z 850 mb temperatures, and
incoming upper level cloud coverage. Generally speaking, most
places today will reside in the mid to upper 90`s, while a few
locations could see 100 degrees or greater in the Canadian River
Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, and the far south eastern Texas
Panhandle. While temperatures in the Canyon do not meet criteria
for a Heat Advisory, those who have to be outside in those parts
are advised to be cautious. Palo Duro is still forecast to reach
103 degrees this afternoon.

Tuesday, slightly cooler temperatures are forecast area wide as a
surface trough ejects into our area from the west and breezier
winds are anticipated with it. With 850 mb temperatures dropping
around 26 degrees Celsius for the Panhandles, an array of upper
80`s and lower 90`s are in the forecast. Only minor changes were
made from the NBM temperatures.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

An upper level trough moves into the High Plains at the start of
the extended period. Once this system moves through, the upper
level pattern returns to more zonal flow. 500 mb heights will rise
slowly through the rest of the week, but a ridge in the jet stream
trough is not expected to fully develop over our area at this
time.

Wednesday will see surface temperatures return to average values
for this time of year thanks to a cold front that will have moved
through the whole CWA by the morning hours. Winds will be
light to breezy from the north, and partly cloudy skies will
settle in. Eventually towards the overnight hours, surface winds
will veer to the southeast and remain that way until Thursday
afternoon. On Thursday, warm air advection from the south will
allow for moisture to return to the area. However, a dryline is
expected to set up during the afternoon. So areas that end up west
of the trough will experience drier air and southwesterly winds.
12Z NBM guidance and LREF probabilities suggest there is still a
50-70% chance the dryline holds in eastern two stacks of counties
in the Panhandles (Beaver to Donley and eastward). Meanwhile the
probabilities sharply decrease any further west; (only a 10% for
the dryline to hold in Amarillo). Thunderstorms are possible once
again ahead of the dryline, but confidence is not high enough to
increase PoPs beyond their chance probabilities in our area.
After all, there`s still a 30-50% chance the dryline stays well
east of our CWA. The primary hazards at this point will likely be
large hail and damaging winds.

Friday onward, 90 degree temperatures return for the Panhandles
and benign weather conditions are anticipated. Current long range
guidance does not have us reaching the 100`s again, since the
progged upper level pattern won`t support it at this time. We will
still monitor for changes as those days get closer.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period.
Some LLWS is expected to be present for KAMA through about 12Z. A
low level jet upwards of 40 to 50 kts is expected to be present at
around 1k to 1.5k feet out of the southwest. Skies are expected to
be mostly clear with surface winds maybe picking up to around 15
kts gusting 25 kts for all three terminals by 20Z to 22Z.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                97  62  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  95  61  89  51 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              94  56  84  46 /   0   0  10  10
Borger TX                 102  64  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  61  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  99  60  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               97  63  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 94  54  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  95  58  87  49 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                99  60  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  64  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  64  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                99  64  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX             101  65  94  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...36