759
FXUS63 KDDC 111933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas can expect a warming trend mid to late week.
  There is +80% chance that highs will range from around 100 to
  near 103 Thursday afternoon.

- There will be chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  (20-40%) across southwest Kansas Thursday night and late
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The ensembles and deterministic models are in good agreement
and continue to show run to run agreement with the upcoming
warming trend over the next few days. The main question remains:
how warm will it get? Earlier today, both the NAEFS and ECMWF
had mean 850MB temperatures ranging between 28 and 32C at 18z
Thursday and 00z Friday. The climatological percentiles from
both ensembles for 850MB mean temperatures ranged from 90-97.5%.
Additionally, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index at 00z Friday
ranges from 0.6 to 0.8 which continue to prove a high confidence
forecast (+80%) for highs of 100 to 103F on Thursday
afternoon. Combining these temperatures with the forecast
afternoon dewpoints, a few locations across south central Kansas
could experience a few hours with heat indices approaching
105F. Although this is just below the heat advisory criteria,
the new experimental NWS HeatRisk outlines this area well,
placing locations near and east of Highway 281 in the major heat
risk category. This is just below heat advisory criteria but
the new experimental NWS HeatRisk does outline this area well
and places locations near and east of 281 in the major heat
risk. Heat of this type represents a major Risk to all
individuals who are 1) exposed to the sun and active or 2) are
in a heat-sensitive group. This is also dangerous to anyone
without proper hydration or adequate cooling.

As for temperatures leading up to this anticipated triple digit
heat on Thursday, I am currently trending towards the warmer
75th percentile for highs tomorrow. This is based on the deeper
mixing potential and the decent agreement among the ensembles
regarding the warming trend of 850-700MB temperatures by late
day. These warm temperatures will be occurring ahead of a
deepening trough of low pressure at the surface that will extend
from eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas as a weak wave
associated with the right entrance region of the upper jet moves
out of the Rockies into the western High Plains. This will
result in highs across southwest Kansas being firmly in the mid
90s. There is some good news regarding the deep mixing potential
late Wednesday...this mixing will result in lower afternoon
dewpoints, so heat index readings on Wednesday should stay below
100F.

Precipitation chances along this boundary late
Wednesday/Wednesday night appear small, but I cannot completely
rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two if we can overcome the
CIN from the warm mid-level temperatures. Weak westerly flow
should also keep any storm that does develop west of Highway 83.
Severe weather is not anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For Thursday night through the start of the weekend, ensemble
clusters show good agreement with an upper ridge over the
Rockies late Thursday moving east across the central Plains and
weakening as a more significant upper-level trough approaches
from the west.

On Thursday night, a surface boundary/cold front will move
towards southwest Kansas, enhancing low-level forcing as +65
degree dew points spread into the area ahead of the boundary.
Ensemble clusters differ on how quickly this moisture will move
north, but in general, the chance for +65F dew points across
southwest Kansas Thursday night is 50%-80%. This moisture,
combined with improving low level forcing and mid level
instability will result in increasing chances for
thunderstorms, especially near the cold front across northern
Kansas. Near this cold front there will be a 40-60% chance for
the 0-6 km shear to be >30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km. This would support the potential for supercells
with large hail and possibly strong gusty winds near this
boundary that is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the
I-70 corridor.

The chance for thunderstorms will then be on the increase
Friday. The mean 500mb heights from the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS are
all in good agreement with this upper trough exiting the Rockies
and crossing western Kansas on Saturday. This will result in
improving chances for thunderstorms ahead of this next upper
level system. The probability of receiving 0.1" of
precipitation from these storms ranges from 40-70% across
southeast Kansas late Saturday into Saturday night.
Additionally, a few severe thunderstorms may once again be
possible, especially based on the latest forecast mid-level
instability and shear.

Over the weekend period the thunderstorm chances will decrease,
but this break will not last long. All the ensembles are in
good agreement that our next upper level trough will exit the
eastern Pacific and cross the southwestern United States early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An area of high pressure at the surface will move east into the
Mid Mississippi Valley tonight as a trough of low pressure
deepens across eastern Colorado. Scattered afternoon clouds
across southwest Kansas in the 3000 to 5000ft AGL level will
dissipate between 00z and 03z Wednesday. The winds will
be/become south southeast at 10 knots or less by 00z Wednesday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert