980
FXUS63 KDDC 231723
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather can be expected over the next week to ten
  days, with only small chances for light rain over central
  Kansas on Tuesday, and Friday into early Saturday.

- Cool nights are forecast through Monday night, but high
  temperatures will warm well into the 70s over the next few
  days as sunshine returns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Regional satellite shows all of the water vapor spreading
across southeast Kansas and southern OK, while a narrow
subsidence zone was evident over southwest NE into southeast
Colorado with the leading edge of the drying zone/cold advection
and deeper mid to upper level differential vorticity advection.
Plenty of sun will be observed Today as high pressure promotes
light winds area-wide. Plenty of model consensus point to high
only reaching the low 70s in most locations.

The 3 main global spectral models ec/gfs/ec place the mid level
low over northern Missouri-southern Iowa by 100 Wednesday. That
on average places the nose of the well across central Kansas.
The window between 18z and 00z is the only reasonable
opportunity for convective showers and models at this time seem
to favor areas east and south of the DDC forecast area. This
still supports the NBMs slight chances (20% or less) for
showers along and east of the 183 corridor. Cloud cover on
Tuesday may be the difference between a range of outcomes for
highs of mid to upper 70s, as in the 75th percentile of NBM
solutions, the lower reasonable expectations of 70-74 degrees as
the 25th percentile shows.

Temperatures later in the week could moderate slightly to
warmer highs, however the potential appears limited. A parked
upper low over the Mid Mississippi valley region and generally
cool continental airmass over the upper Missouri valley and
cornbelt regions will help supply easterly surface wind
trajectories into the western High Plains through the end of the
week. Models lend themselves to more uncertainty as well by the
weekend when each global deterministic model presents a
different version of the northern stream branch disassociating
with and leaving a cutoff low to meander back westward again.
The end result ins generally high pressure aloft dominating the
region from New Mexico and across the western half of Kansas
into Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

BUFR soundings and short term ensembles are in good agreement,
indicating a period of ceilings between 6000 and 12000 ft AGL
ahead of an upper level trough crossing Kansas late tonight into
early Tuesday. Although precipitation is not expected, some
scattered sprinkles or very light showers cant be completely
ruled out, though the chance is low (<20%), so no precipitation
will be included in the 18z TAFs. Along with increasing clouds
late tonight, a surface boundary will cross southwest Kansas
between 09z and 18z Tuesday. Light winds today and early tonight
will shift to the north at 10 to 20 knots as the surface
boundary passes.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert