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FXUS64 KLUB 211721
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The upper level high currently positioned over the ArkLaTex region
will continue its westward progression into the South Plains region
through the short-term period. As this high pushes closer to the
region, expect thickness values to rise, influencing warmer
temperatures than previous. However, increased moisture will remain
locked in place this afternoon with moist southerly winds prevailing
at the surface through 700 mb. This moist return flow in addition to
remnant moisture from TS Alberto will allow for cloud cover and
lingering showers to continue this morning across portions of the
western South Plains before tracking into the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle by the late morning and afternoon hours. Therefore,
temperatures will remain cooler across areas where shower activity
and cloud cover is expected, i.e. portions of the northern South
Plains and far southwestern Texas Panhandle, in the 80s. While areas
elsewhere, can expect warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s as skies begin to clear. Shower activity is expected to come to
an end by the evening hours as the upper level high expands over the
region. Cloud cover will begin to diminish overnight, with mild
overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper level high pressure that has been dominated the eastern CONUS
this week will begin to retrograde westward through the weekend
finally setting up over the Four Corners region by Monday with
amplification of the flow over the CONUS as a trough sets up over
the eastern CONUS toward midweek. Overall this will lead to warmer
temperatures with highs back primarily to the upper 90s to around
100 for the majority of next week. Will keep the forecast a dry one
through Monday with high pressure overhead. The trough digging to
our east will bring a pattern more favorable for mainly nocturnal
northwest flow thunderstorms coming out of northeastern New Mexico.
NBM continues to respond to this with PoPs in the Tuesday to
Thursday period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon, though brief
bouts of MVFR conditions are possible at all terminals given the
moist environment. Low clouds are less likely tomorrow morning as
surface winds gain a westerly component and the low-levels gradually
begin to dry out.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DF