Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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859 FXUS64 KLUB 151938 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Current conditions across the FA are quiet and warm with most stations reporting temps of at least 87 as of 1 PM. Temps are only expected to warm by a few more degrees before sunset. Decent surface moisture remains with dewpoints mostly in the low 50s to mid 60s. The upper low over the Pacific Northwest will continue digging southward this evening and into tonight. The upper low is currently aiding in terrain induced convection across central New Mexico. This convection is expected to push slightly eastward this evening into northeastern New Mexico and possibly the Texas Panhandle. There is a very slight possibility for convection to enter our northern zones, but the window will be short lived. The only upper support for storms is very weak diffluence. Tomorrow will not be too dissimilar from today. The upper ridge will build slightly, but a slight decrease in thicknesses will help keep high temps almost unchanged from today. The building ridge will also help to suppress convective chances. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The extended forecast remains largely unchanged and features warm temperatures (though not quite as hot as recently) and periodic thunderstorm chances. The upper low discussed in the short term will settle over the Great Basin tomorrow before ejecting northeastward and emerging over the northern High Plains midweek. Quickly on its heals, another upper low will drop into the larger western CONUS trough, pivoting over the Great Basin on Thursday. This spring- like pattern will provide a prolonged period of southwesterly flow aloft over the southern High Plains. Large scale lift with the initial wave will graze the region Tuesday evening, providing good thunderstorm chances, especially for our northwestern/western zones. This activity could affect much of the southern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains, but will struggle to make it too far east, with the Rolling Plains least likely to see any measurable rain. Thereafter, a surface trough and dryline will provide a focus for potential late afternoon and evening convection Wednesday and Thursday. However, lacking large scale support, any storms will likely be spotty/isolated, at best. Should a storm manage to get rooted through the middle part of the week, decent deep layer shear and modest instability could support some organization. Eventually, thunderstorm chances will increase and expand from west-to-east late Friday into Saturday as the next iteration of the western upper low is expected to eject over the central High Plains and provide larger- scale support locally. Rain chances could linger into Sunday if the slower solutions come to fruition, before cooler and drier conditions infiltrate the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms at PVW and CDS after 00Z and before midnight. Any storm that develops is expected to be weak with the main hazards being wind gusts up to 35 knots and brief MVFR conditions. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...51